In one of our ‘The dialectics’ weekly conversations on South Asia, the Editor pointed out, rather an interesting fact, that we somehow do not talk about South Asia. What he meant is that we either ignore it or deliberately skip it, or, as it happens, we converse about issues that made news across the world, except in South Asia. Again, when South Asia takes center stage in conversation, it is not planned to cover the entire South Asia region, but rather focuses on issues that made the news from India, as if the issues in other countries of South Asia are less important than those from India. Why does this happen?
There are several reasons, perhaps these reasons can be explained in another piece. For now, let me remind the reader of something we all acknowledge: that we somehow enjoy talking about others more than ourselves. In a similar vein, we enjoy discussing more about what the rest of the world is doing than trying to understand what is happening in our own backyard. Simply put, we are happy to be ignorant about South Asia rather than being informed.
However, what dominated the conversation was—why is the West not intimidated by the possible rise of India, but rather by the growing clout of China? We had an insightful conversation, and below are some of the reasons.
In India’s rise, the West sees a greater geopolitical balance against China
China’s rise is imminent. The West cannot stop China’s economic juggernaut. Moreover, the Global South is becoming increasingly vocal, and it is welcoming China’s development model over the West’s export of liberal democracy. What the West seems to worry about is not China’s economic clout, but its assertions over claims that were once subdued. For example, China’s assertion over the entirety of the South China Sea has come into conflict with claims laid by the Philippines and Vietnam. The West and its allies, Japan and Taiwan, are pessimistic about the Pacific Ocean remaining freely accessible and navigable. Therefore, if the claims remain unchecked, the West may lose its greater influence in the Pacific region, and the repercussions will be felt on trade and commerce.
The West views India as a perfect counterbalance due to its substantial economic size, diverse demography, and increasing global influence. The West is aware that India and China have frosty relations. Their unresolved border issues keep them away from working in perfect harmony. It is because both treat border issues differently.
For India, progress on relations with China depends on the resolution of border issues, and it has made it amply clear multiple times. And for China, it does not want border issues to hinder engagement with India in other spheres. They might be doing reasonably well in terms of trade, but it is still far from establishing a relationship based on trust. This works in favor of the West because, as long as border issues persist, India will remain favorable to the West, rejecting China’s authoritarianism.
Diversification of the supply Chains and trade
China’s open economy in the 1980s attracted significant investments from the West. The West shifted and outsourced its major manufacturing units to China, benefiting from its low-cost production value and labor, which increased Western capitalists’ profit margins. Over the period, labour costs have become marginally competitive, and political mobilization in the West against the outsourcing of labour and the relocation of manufacturing back is growing louder.
Currently, China, with an economy of almost $ 20 trillion, is only behind the US. It is the largest trading partner of over 120 countries, with an export value of $ 3.58 trillion. China’s combined trade with the West is approximately 30 percent of its total trade. As the leading exporter of manufactured goods, which include machinery and electronics, China is now slowly leading the world in high-tech exports. It is also the largest producer of rare earth minerals, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the global supply and demand. Rare earths are essential for high-tech manufacturing.
However, the pandemic caused disruptions in global trade, exposed the vulnerabilities of Western economies’ over-reliance on Chinese manufacturing and imports of critical minerals to sustain their high-tech industries.
The West recognizes the need to diversify trade and, importantly, supply chains to mitigate the impact of these disruptions. India provides an alternative platform and has an abundant young talent pool that could potentially replace China. The West, in its attempt, may incur costs, but India provides a stable economic option.
Enhanced security partnerships
India has one of the largest military forces in the world, known for its professionalism and combat readiness. The West benefits from military ties and intelligence sharing with India. India’s strategic presence in the Indian Ocean region, its growing navy, and participation in defense support Western security interests. Threats are not only increasing in number but also taking a myriad of forms, and collaborative efforts will be necessary to tackle these complex threats. Traditional threats, such as sea piracy and terrorism, and maintaining an open sea line, are necessary for world trade. India is a major presence in the Indian Ocean region. Nearly 45 per cent of the global trade route passes through the Indian Ocean.
Boost to global economic growth
India’s economy is growing. It has taken over many major economies and sits fourth in the list of leading large economies. It has the required potential to grow into the largest economy in the near future. It has a young, educated, and skilled demographic and will likely remain so for the foreseeable future, while many major economies fall short. Its manufacturing is yet to pick up the pace and match that of the leading manufacturers, but with the current government’s impetus to manufacturing, the future looks brighter.
Amidst global economic gloom and doom, the Indian economy has always remained resilient. For example, the Indian economy rebounded quickly after the 2008 financial crisis and similarly after the pandemic. The IMF continues to project the Indian economy as resilient and remains the fastest-growing economy in the world, thereby contributing to global economic growth despite disruptions.
Stability and support for democratic institutions
India has an enviable democratic credential and offers political and economic stability. Its democratic institutions have come under strain many times in its short history, but they have ably sustained and performed with credibility. The political culture in India is vibrant and diverse. Its plurality is both a strength and a challenge; it requires continual negotiations and dialogue among different groups. While India has from time to time faced criticism on its political mismanagement, it still manages to uphold democratic integrity and ensures the citizens participate enthusiastically as well.
The West values the liberal democratic order and believes that it is the path to socio-economic change and prosperity. The West’s belief in democratic governance as a vehicle for socio-economic development aligns with its historical experiences, where democratic institutions have typically facilitated greater economic growth, individual liberties, and social equality. India, through its political culture, provides a similar sensibility to the West, therefore it remains an attractive option to back so that the West is not taken off guard even if India rises.
China, on the other hand, is now an economic giant, but the West still suspects its institutional credibility and abhors its authoritarian tendencies. The Chinese government’s tight control over political life, censorship of the media, and suppression of political dissents are in contrast to the democratic ideals propagated by the West. The West has, for centuries, fought for liberal values in political life. And therefore, commercial values seem to take a backseat to the question of liberal values. And the West is right in doing so.
