Iran strives to have a larger influence in West Asia and seeks to become a leader of the Muslim world. One of the strategies Iran plays is supporting the terrorist groups as its proxies in the region. Despite holding opposing religious beliefs—specifically, Sunni Islam, while Tehran’s official religion is Shia Islam—there are interactions between the two. Most of Iran’s proxies are concentrated in the Shia Crescent region. Proxies play a major role in influencing domestic politics and manipulating peace in the region. Notably, Hamas, which has predominantly held the Gaza Strip since 2007 after expelling the Palestinian Authority, mainly targets Israeli citizens. Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis, a Shia Muslim armed religious and political group in Yemen. Iran’s proxy, a regime in Syria led by President Bashar al-Assad, which was operating in a manner that aligned with Iran’s interests.
How are Iran’s proxies losing?
Firstly, the major general commander of Iran’s IRGC, Qassem Soleimani, was assassinated on January 3, 2020, a watershed moment triggering a series of setbacks for Iran and its proxies. The death of Soleimani led to more risks than rewards. The General used Iran’s logistical and military capabilities in giving and maintaining the proxies effectively. Soleimani turned the proxies from a regular terrorist group to high strategic capabilities; some proxies deepened their political arena. After the death of Soleimani the successor, Esmail Qaani, a much weaker figure, couldn’t balance proxies well.
Secondly, Iran’s proxy failure came and was largely visible after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, alongside the Hezbollah attack the next day. Hamas’s operation Al-Aqsa Storm killed at least 1200, injured about 4000, and took about 256 people as hostages. Israel, in response, initiated the Swords of Iron War. Israel’s ground operations to dismantle Hezbollah and Hamas ground infrastructure and target airstrikes weakened both proxies. The Pager Attacks in Lebanon killed about 4000, and millions have been displaced and raised concerns about long-term sustainability. The ceasefire paused the conflict between Israel and Hamas but couldn’t last. The failure of Hamas to exchange hostages and dead bodies and Hamas’s rejection of Israel’s push to extend the first phase of the ceasefire resumed the war. Israel seems to be committed to seizing the land and annihilating Hamas for aye.
Thirdly, the void in leadership. In the prolonged conflict, Israel effectively carried on eliminating the leaders. IDF killed Yaya Sinwar in the southern city of Gaza; he was a chair of the political bureau, alongside deputy chair Saleh al-Arouri. Other heads, like Ismail Haniyeh – chief of the political bureau and former leader of Hamas, Ahmed Yassin – co-founder of Hamas, Deif – chief of the military wing, Abdel-Azzizat Rantisi, co founder of Hamas, were deceased, leaving a vacuum in leadership in Hamas. Hassan Nasrallah, the man who transformed Hezbollah into a paramilitary and political force, was killed during major airstrikes on Beirut, and the IDF managed to eliminate Hashem Safieddine, the successor, too. As it weakened, Hezbollah couldn’t support the Assad regime in Syria.
Fall of Assad regime, end of proxy in Syria
Iran, with Russia, supported the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. Russia intervened militarily in 2015 to maintain naval and air bases in West Asia, i.e., Latakia and Tartus. With the presence of Russia and the support of Iran, the Assad regime longed for internal civil war for a decade. The war in Ukraine pushed Syria to be vulnerable. On February 24, 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine kept an eye on the Syrian front. Iran-backed Hezbollah has already been weakened by Israel and couldn’t back the Assad regime. In addition to the rise of Abu Muhammad al-Julani and his organisation, HTSC (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), in Idlib province. The modernisation of Idlib province set an example for Syrians; thousands migrated to Idlib province, Assad supporters turned opposing, and Julani’s fame toppled the Assad regime. With the fall, Israel made its objectives clear. It reinforced its defences in the Golan Heights and launched Operation Bashan Arrow, with hundreds of strikes destroying the Syrian arsenal, air defences, ballistic missiles, weapon depots, naval assets, and chemical weapons. Israel managed to seize the area of separation. This led to a failure on the Axis of Resistance.
Attacks on Houthis
Houthis are Shia Muslim armed groups backed by Iran, largely centred in the Sana’a province of Yemen. After the outbreak of the Gaza war, Houthis made hundreds of attacks on the Red Sea, targeting American ships, vessels, and ships that connect Israel too. The US launched relentless airstrikes on Houthis after the 3rd attack on the US aircraft carrier USS Harry Truman. Trump warns Houthis to be eliminated and warns Iran to stop funding Houthis. The attack seems to aim to weaken the Houthis permanently and break the Axis of Resistance.
Conclusion
Subjectively, Russia’s strategic interest in the region, access to the warm port and air bases, and the fall of the Assad regime seem burdensome in West Asia. Iranian proxies are completely weakened in the region. The US and Israeli weaponry easily topples proxies in the region. Proxies are weakened before Israel and as the US. Rebuilding and re-arming, financing would be a big burden for the Proxies The void in effective leadership to lead proxies still seems to be a concern. Iran proxies are at the edge of a series of setbacks, setting a downside to the Axis of Resistance.
Are Iran’s proxies failing?
Iran strives to have a larger influence in West Asia and seeks to become a leader of the Muslim world. One of the strategies Iran plays is supporting the terrorist groups as its proxies in the region. Despite holding opposing religious beliefs—specifically, Sunni Islam, while Tehran’s official religion is Shia Islam—there are interactions between the two. Most of Iran’s proxies are concentrated in the Shia Crescent region. Proxies play a major role in influencing domestic politics and manipulating peace in the region. Notably, Hamas, which has predominantly held the Gaza Strip since 2007 after expelling the Palestinian Authority, mainly targets Israeli citizens. Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis, a Shia Muslim armed religious and political group in Yemen. Iran’s proxy, a regime in Syria led by President Bashar al-Assad, which was operating in a manner that aligned with Iran’s interests.
How are Iran’s proxies losing?
Firstly, the major general commander of Iran’s IRGC, Qassem Soleimani, was assassinated on January 3, 2020, a watershed moment triggering a series of setbacks for Iran and its proxies. The death of Soleimani led to more risks than rewards. The General used Iran’s logistical and military capabilities in giving and maintaining the proxies effectively. Soleimani turned the proxies from a regular terrorist group to high strategic capabilities; some proxies deepened their political arena. After the death of Soleimani the successor, Esmail Qaani, a much weaker figure, couldn’t balance proxies well.
Secondly, Iran’s proxy failure came and was largely visible after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, alongside the Hezbollah attack the next day. Hamas’s operation Al-Aqsa Storm killed at least 1200, injured about 4000, and took about 256 people as hostages. Israel, in response, initiated the Swords of Iron War. Israel’s ground operations to dismantle Hezbollah and Hamas ground infrastructure and target airstrikes weakened both proxies. The Pager Attacks in Lebanon killed about 4000, and millions have been displaced and raised concerns about long-term sustainability. The ceasefire paused the conflict between Israel and Hamas but couldn’t last. The failure of Hamas to exchange hostages and dead bodies and Hamas’s rejection of Israel’s push to extend the first phase of the ceasefire resumed the war. Israel seems to be committed to seizing the land and annihilating Hamas for aye.
Thirdly, the void in leadership. In the prolonged conflict, Israel effectively carried on eliminating the leaders. IDF killed Yaya Sinwar in the southern city of Gaza; he was a chair of the political bureau, alongside deputy chair Saleh al-Arouri. Other heads, like Ismail Haniyeh – chief of the political bureau and former leader of Hamas, Ahmed Yassin – co-founder of Hamas, Deif – chief of the military wing, Abdel-Azzizat Rantisi, co founder of Hamas, were deceased, leaving a vacuum in leadership in Hamas. Hassan Nasrallah, the man who transformed Hezbollah into a paramilitary and political force, was killed during major airstrikes on Beirut, and the IDF managed to eliminate Hashem Safieddine, the successor, too. As it weakened, Hezbollah couldn’t support the Assad regime in Syria.
Fall of Assad regime, end of proxy in Syria
Iran, with Russia, supported the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. Russia intervened militarily in 2015 to maintain naval and air bases in West Asia, i.e., Latakia and Tartus. With the presence of Russia and the support of Iran, the Assad regime longed for internal civil war for a decade. The war in Ukraine pushed Syria to be vulnerable. On February 24, 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine kept an eye on the Syrian front. Iran-backed Hezbollah has already been weakened by Israel and couldn’t back the Assad regime. In addition to the rise of Abu Muhammad al-Julani and his organisation, HTSC (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), in Idlib province. The modernisation of Idlib province set an example for Syrians; thousands migrated to Idlib province, Assad supporters turned opposing, and Julani’s fame toppled the Assad regime. With the fall, Israel made its objectives clear. It reinforced its defences in the Golan Heights and launched Operation Bashan Arrow, with hundreds of strikes destroying the Syrian arsenal, air defences, ballistic missiles, weapon depots, naval assets, and chemical weapons. Israel managed to seize the area of separation. This led to a failure on the Axis of Resistance.
Attacks on Houthis
Houthis are Shia Muslim armed groups backed by Iran, largely centred in the Sana’a province of Yemen. After the outbreak of the Gaza war, Houthis made hundreds of attacks on the Red Sea, targeting American ships, vessels, and ships that connect Israel too. The US launched relentless airstrikes on Houthis after the 3rd attack on the US aircraft carrier USS Harry Truman. Trump warns Houthis to be eliminated and warns Iran to stop funding Houthis. The attack seems to aim to weaken the Houthis permanently and break the Axis of Resistance.
Conclusion
Subjectively, Russia’s strategic interest in the region, access to the warm port and air bases, and the fall of the Assad regime seem burdensome in West Asia. Iranian proxies are completely weakened in the region. The US and Israeli weaponry easily topples proxies in the region. Proxies are weakened before Israel and as the US. Rebuilding and re-arming, financing would be a big burden for the Proxies The void in effective leadership to lead proxies still seems to be a concern. Iran proxies are at the edge of a series of setbacks, setting a downside to the Axis of Resistance.
Author
Chandan Kumar J N