Iran’s nuclear program has long been a source of tension that shapes regional and global diplomacy, military strategies and power structures in the Middle East. So far, international pressure over the past couple of decades, economic sanctions, and diplomatic efforts have not spurred Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions. The argument that Iran might someday denuclearize under the right circumstances is fundamentally flawed because Iran’s nuclear strategy is not just about acquiring weapons, but about deterrence, national security, and geopolitical influence. As long as continuing hostility emanates from the United States, Israel, and regional Arab states, Iran will never willingly forgo its nuclear potential. Its nuclear program is a significant strategic asset because it ensures survival, reinforces its regional power status, and has served as an important counterweight to its adversaries.
Iran’s Security Dilemma and the Need for Deterrence
The main reason Iran will not denuclearize is its security dilemma. Iran is surrounded by hostile states and military threats. It is under the presence of U.S. military bases across the Middle East, mainly in the Persian Gulf, coupled with the already existent nuclear arsenal of Israel. For Iran, deterrence has become the central pillar of its defence policy as it sees itself as ‘under constant threat and isolated.’
As history testifies, countries that abandoned their nuclear program ended up in a weak position. Vivid examples are Iraq and Libya. Saddam Hussein’s Iraq was blamed for building Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs), leading to an invasion by the U.S. and its allies in 2003 that culminated in regime change. Likewise, Muhammad Gaddafi of Libya gave up his nuclear program in 2003 as a means to begin relations with the West. Only a little over nine years later, the 2011 NATO-backed uprising saw the ouster and brutal killing of Gaddafi. To Tehran, denuclearization equates to strategic suicide since this would make it vulnerable to military intervention and regime destabilization. The lessons gleaned from such examples only have served to reassure Tehran’s leaders that nuclear capability is the very best form of insurance against the foreigners who would invade Iran.
Iran’s Regional Power Struggle and Nuclear Leverage
Iran is deeply involved in a regional power play, especially against Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the United States. Its nuclear program is not just a matter of military defence but also a geopolitical tool. Tehran has for a long time taken the baton of the leader of the “Axis of Resistance”, which supports the likes of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and various Shia militias in Iraq and Syria. Its nuclear capability adds to its influence, enabling it to project power across the region and challenge the dominance of Western-backed Sunni Arab states.
Maintaining its nuclear programme puts Iran firmly in the driver’s seat of Middle Eastern geopolitics. Were it to give up the bomb, its regional enemies— Israel and Saudi Arabia, above all—would gain a crucial strategic edge. The nuclear capability holds these countries back from undertaking full-scale military operations against Iran or its allied militias. This will be of great importance for the broader geopolitical purposes of Iran.
Furthermore, the collapse of Iran’s traditional allies, such as Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, has made nuclear deterrence even more critical. Iran can no longer rely on regional partners to serve as buffers against hostile powers. Without a credible nuclear program, Iran risks being strategically outmanoeuvred and encircled by hostile forces.
The Role of the United States and the Failure of Diplomacy
The United States has long attempted to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons through a combination of economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and military threats. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), often referred to as the Iran nuclear deal, was a diplomatic effort to restrain Iran’s nuclear aspirations. The 2018 withdrawal by the U.S. from this deal during the presidency of Donald Trump changed Tehran’s perception of diplomacy in fundamental ways.
From the Iranian point of view, the JCPOA collapse proved that the United States cannot be trusted. Iran had strictly adhered to the nuclear restrictions of the agreement, only to see Washington unilaterally abandon the deal and reinstate harsh sanctions. This convinced Tehran that negotiating away its nuclear leverage was a mistake. After the U.S. withdrawal, Iran resumed its uranium enrichment program, gradually exceeding the limits set by the JCPOA.
Even during the Biden administration, attempts to reopen the nuclear deal have faltered. Iranian leaders have moved to an even more hard-line position, making clear that it will not resume talks until Washington makes irreversible assurances about a renewed nuclear deal. It speaks to a deeper sense of realization: Iran is unlikely to seek denuclearization because it has come to believe that the commitments of Western nations are too easily broken.
Iran’s Military Doctrine: Nuclear and Missile Development
Although Iran officially has said that it does not pursue nuclear weapons, its advanced missile program indicates otherwise. Iran has developed an arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles to be used for delivering conventional or potentially nuclear warheads. Therefore, this missile program is at the centre of Iran’s asymmetric warfare strategy built to counter technologically superior adversaries such as Israel and the United States.
Iran’s missile capabilities serve several strategic purposes. First, they enhance deterrence by signalling to adversaries that any attack on Iran will be met with a devastating response. Second, they provide a means of regional power projection, allowing Iran to strike targets in Israel, the Gulf states, and U.S. military bases if conflict arises. Third, they compensate for Iran’s ageing conventional military forces, which are heavily sanctioned and lack access to advanced Western weaponry.
Considering all these factors, Iran’s nuclear program is not an isolated effort. Rather, it is part of a broader military strategy that includes missile development, cyber warfare, and proxy militias. The integration of these capabilities makes it even less likely that Iran will voluntarily give up its nuclear program, as doing so would undermine its entire defence doctrine.
Iran’s View on International Non-Proliferation Efforts
Iran has criticized international non-proliferation efforts as biased and selectively enforced. This is because Tehran points to Israel’s undeclared nuclear arsenal, claiming that Western powers have been turned a blind eye to Israeli nuclear capabilities while aggressively targeting Iran’s nuclear program. Iran finds no reason to improve its relations with the West if not for the economic benefits, which again are not sure to improve if they de-nuclearize; therefore, nothing should make it denuclearize.
Iran also perceives nuclear weapons as a counterweight to the United States and its partners’ influence. Tehran feels that nuclear capability serves as an icon of national independence and defiance in the face of perceived Western colonialism. The ideological dimension renders it harder for Iran’s regime to rationalize the need for denuclearization for the country’s home front.
Risk of Regime Change and Survival Strategy for Iran
A key reason why Iran will never denuclearize is that its nuclear program is directly tied to regime survival. The Iranian government understands that the greatest existential threat it faces is foreign-sponsored regime change, similar to what happened in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan. A strong nuclear deterrent serves as a safeguard against external intervention, ensuring that Iran cannot be easily overthrown through military action.
The regime in Tehran well knows that Washington’s long-term objective has often been regime change. This realization was further consolidated following the assassination by the U.S. of General Qasem Soleimani in 2020, a move that demonstrated America’s willingness to eliminate key Iranian figures. With this adversarial reality in mind, it is almost beyond comprehension that Iran would ever voluntarily dismantle its nuclear deterrent, as such a step would leave the government extremely vulnerable to external threats.
Why Iran Will Never Denuclearize: An Added Perspective
Iran would never de-nuke itself because the holding of nuclear weapons is not the only factor that attracts its hate from the U.S. and other countries in the region. There are many other factors contributing to the hostility. Iran’s regional policies, ideological stance, support for proxy groups, and opposition to Western-backed regimes fuel its strained relations with its adversaries. Thus, even if Iran were to de-nuke, it cannot expect to find common ground with these powers. Its geopolitical and ideological positions would still make it a target, ensuring that its nuclear deterrent remains vital.
Conclusion
Iran’s nuclear strategy is not just about getting weapons; it is about ensuring its survival, deterring aggression, and maintaining its regional influence. The Islamic Republic sees its nuclear capabilities as an essential tool of statecraft, ensuring that no foreign power can dictate its future. As long as hostility from the U.S., Israel, and Gulf Arab states persists, Iran has no incentive to denuclearize.
The failure of past diplomatic efforts, the collapse of the JCPOA, and continued military threats against Iran have only served to solidify its conviction that nuclear deterrence is the requirement for its survival. If history has given Iran anything, it is that states without strong capabilities for deterrence are exposed to external interference. These are reasons why the notion that Iran is likely to surrender its nuclear dreams voluntarily remains highly unrealistic.
