How has the drone changed modern warfare?
The last few years have witnessed the growth of military drones, with a growth subjected to US$12.94 million in 2023 and expected growth to reach US$22.72 million by 2031. The growth in drone use is propelled by the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI), which has increased the precision of drone strikes. In addition, drones have also served to be comparatively advantageous to traditional weapons as it is laden with the ability of real-time surveillance and reconnaissance, precision strikes and comparatively low loss of human lives.
To cite the growing usage of uninhabited aerial vehicles (UAVs) in recent times, the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia and the swelling conflict in West Asia can be taken as instances. It has led to a surge in demand for UAVs and technological innovation. For instance, Ukraine has developed a new class of unmanned system- it’s a missile drone. Also, in order to counter Russia’s Shahed drone, Ukraine has developed its Sting System- a quadcopter drone which can fly up to 3,000 km.
In the case of Russia, it has geared up its industrial production of drones- specifically Shahed drones. Originally imported from Iran, but now mass produced in Russia using a mix of smuggled Western electronics and important Chinese parts. The strategy behind the mass production of low-cost drones actually caters to the idea of forcing the defender to ramp up its defence spending to intercept those drones.
One of the recent and largest manifestations of Russia’s drone attacks on Ukraine took place on June 29, 2025. Russia had fired over 500 aerial weapons over Ukraine, and 475 drones were detected by Ukraine’s aerial system. In September 07, Russia had fired 805 drones and 13 missiles, with Ukrainian air defence units downing 751 drones and four missiles. In response to this attack on September 14, Ukraine had launched 361 drones targeting Russia overnight, sparking a brief fire at the vast Kirishi oil refinery in Russia’s north-west.
Shifting the focus to Myanmar, the state has been in a situation of conflict since the military coup of February 2021. Apart from the complex character of the conflict involving the junta and the Ethnic Army Organisation (EAO), this conflict is also characterised by aerial warfare involving the use of drones. The disparity in terms of arms capability between the junta and EAO, the latter has resorted to constitute their force entirely of “air force” due to the inadequate stock of grenades, land and water mines, rocket launchers, and bombs for drones. These drones have been used for several purposes, such as reconnaissance, disrupting military supply lines and reinforcement, engaging in combat, destroying high-value assets, and conducting high-profile attacks or assassinations. The recent air strike on two private schools on September 13 by the junta in the Rakhine state, which killed at least 19 students, is the latest development.
Apart from this, during the recent conflict between Thailand and Cambodia in July 2025, it is reported that Thailand have used F-16 fighter jets and drones and Cambodia have deployed Russian BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles. This conflict has revealed the depth of global arms proliferation in Southeast Asia.
The surge in demand for Defence Drones in Southeast Asia
Nevertheless, the conflict situation and the nature of tactics and weapons used by the above-mentioned states have caught the attention of the rest of the states. Ever since the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia war in 2023, it has garnered a lot of attention. The states of Southeast Asia and East Asian region have also monitored it closely. This is reflected in the shifts in their defence policies and the nature of defence equipment procurement done by these states over the last few years. Also, there are other push and pull factors such as the continuing maritime tensions in the South China and East China Seas and the growing military and technological prowess of China; which is perceived as a threat by these states, although in varying degrees. Among most of the states of this region, it has been observed that there is an upward trend in demand for drones and also a push for domestic manufacturing of drones.
For instance, Thailand’s white papers of 2024 had mentioned about the procurement of weapons, including drones. The Royal Thai Air Forces (RTAF) procurement of Saab’s Gripen E/F fighter jets and simultaneous development of domestic produced drone systems signal a strategic shift towards high-tech and precision-driven warfare.
The importance of drones is not just restricted to the procurement of drones. Singapore’s Defence Minister Chan Chun Shin has recently announced that every new recruit entering Basic Military Training (BMT) will learn to operate drones and to counter them. In another aspect, Singapore’s Defence Science and Technology Agency (DSTA) and Australia’s Defence Tax have signed a MoU to explore collaborative opportunities in platform-launched drones, munition safety, and novel unmanned vehicle (UxV) for concept of operations for Singapore’s defence needs.
Furthermore, in February 2025, Indonesia signed a contract with Turkish drone maker Baykar to supply with 60 Bayraktar TB3 armed drones and nine Akinci surveillance drones. Such trends of defence drone procurement points at the demand diversification towards non-Western markets. Similarly, in May 2025, the Malaysian government formally announced a contract with Turkish Aerospace Industries to procure three Anka multirole unmanned aircraft systems.
In the case of Vietnam, in August 2025, Vietnam’s CT Group have secured a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with an emerging South Korean drone company for the export of 5,000 UAVs to Seoul. It points to the growing technological prowess of Vietnam, and CT Group’s UAV can carry a payload ranging from 60 to 300 kg. In addition, it also points at how Vietnam has reaped the advantages of the “China Plus One Strategy” by acquiring its semiconductor production in the region. There is a strong co-relation between semiconductor and defence drones as the former helps in processing sensor data from radar, infrared and electronic warfare systems in real time for the latter.
Yet another major player in the drone market is Taiwan. Taipei’s “Drone National Team” is a key national initiative which was launched in 2022 to rapidly accelerate domestic drone development and aims to achieve self-sufficiency and become a global hub for the drone economy. This project is a consortium of 60 Taiwanese companies and research institutions tasked with developing indigenous UAVs at scale. The motive behind the adoption of this project is to compete with the Chinese markets. Apart from Taiwan’s growing interest in the production of drones due to its fragile geopolitical location, and the ongoing issues with China at multiple fronts. Taipei’s move is also fuelled with the intent to become a dominant player in the global drone market. In addition, Taiwan is also driven by the pursuit to reduce its global dependence on drones. For instance, during the inauguration speech of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te pledged to make Taiwan “the Asian hub of unmanned aerial vehicle supply chains for global democracies”.
When it comes to the case of South Korea, it is riddled with the history of conflict with North Korea (1950-53), and the prevailing situation between the two has kept the area of defence as one of the top priority areas. Apart from the arms race between South and North Korea, the urge to become ‘self-reliant’ in defence production had also been equally strong in both Seoul and Pyongyang.
Given the context, on October 02 2024, South Korea signed an order for 200 units of Warmate suicide drones from WB Electronics of Poland. Another aspect of South Korea’s accelerated urge to procure drones is the cautiousness related to North Korea’s involvement (sending of troops) in the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war and North Korea’s increased production of “suicide attack drones”.
In the case of Japan, its Defence Ministry has requested a record US$59.8 billion for acquiring unmanned systems for air, sea-surface and underground drones and long-range missile drones. This budget also seeks to roughly triple spending on various types of unmanned vehicles to US$21 million, meant for the purpose to strengthen a planned coastal defence system- SHIELD (Synchronised, Hybrid, Integrated and Enhanced Littoral Defence). Apart from its domestic demands for drones, through its Official Security Assistance (OSA) Initiative, Tokyo is also looking forward to export its indigenously-built drones. For instance, on September 22, Japan delivered 14 UAVs and seven rescue boats to Malayia.
In a similar vein of domestic development of drones, on September 16 2025 Philippines Air Force and Research Development Centre (AFRDC) unveiled its first homegrown armed drones, marking a milestone in the country’s Self-Reliant Defence Posture (SRDP) program. In addition, Manila has also begun using Israeli-made intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) drones in field operations and unmanned surface vehicles in the South China Sea.
A Short Analysis
Given a precise yet comprehensive view on how the middle powers of the Southeast and East Asian regions have responded to the increasing trend for procurement of defence drones, several factors can be pointed out. Firstly, the need for these states to modernize their defence system with the integration of defence drones. The recent ongoing conflicts, as stated above, have pointed at the changes in the pattern of warfare, which has markedly moved into aerial warfare. Second, modernization and integration of defence drones will help these states to mitigate threats and enhance preparedness. In this context, the patterns of behaviour of the states also point to the wickedness of instability and unpredictability of conflict; which states want to avoid at maximum. In addition, prevailing threats and disputes in their immediate vicinity is also acting as a catalyst. Thirdly, the ongoing war has also instilled anxieties among states. As a result, they have not only signed MoUs with other states for the procurement of defence drones but also have enhanced domestic production of drones. To put simply, states have continued to reap benefits out of complex interdependence at a global level, but at the same time have been cautious about the perils of disruption of the global supply chain and the cost of dependence. Hence, states are also equally striving for self-sufficiency. Lastly, interestingly, Türkiye has emerged as a dominant player in the global drone market, accounting for 65 percent sales of military UAV sales since 2018. As stated above, both Indonesia and Malaysia have procured defence drones from Türkiye. It points that non-Western states beyond the region of Southeast and East Asia have started to become an important defence partner. However, this does not suggest that Western powers, especially the U.S., are no longer important defence partners of this region. There are other factors which states often consider, such as costs, range and the time period.
All in all, we can conclude by stating that there is an outright increase in the percentage of defence drone procurement.
