Complex factors in South Korea
In recent times, South Korea’s grass-root democracy came up to be resilient in the face of the imposition of martial law and followed by two simultaneous impeachment of the President and acting President. The impeachment case is now examined by the Constitutional Court which requires it to render a final verdict within 180 days, and if the impeachment is confirmed, a new presidential election should be held within two months after that. This means that the political crisis is going to last in South Korea for the upcoming months, leaving the state without a clear leader to face the looming challenges both at the state and global levels.
Nevertheless, South Korea has had a history of ouster of Presidents who have been impeached or assassinated. In the past twenty years, the state has seen the impeachment of three Presidents. Moreover, the state has experienced martial law under the control of Park Chung-Hee in the 1970s. Following the assassination of Park Chung-Hee in 1979, South Korea underwent another military coup led by Chun Doon Whan. All in all South Korea has seen the imposition of martial law for sixteen times. It was only in 1987 when the state experienced its first ever free and fair election, until then it was ruled by military generals. Hence, since the late 1980s South Korea has seen a robust democracy with a strong civil society and protest culture.
Apart from the history of authoritarian politics and a relatively young democracy, there are other complex factors which affects South Korea. First, presence of North Korea as its immediate neighbour and the overwhelming military might of the same; is the biggest threat to South Korea. Second, South Korea’s dicey relation with China and the latter’s close association with North Korea, acts as a serious concern. Third, South Korea is a close ally of the U.S. South Korea’s relation with the U.S. consists of an element of dependency especially in the area of defence. However with the coming of the Trump administration 2.0, the U.S.’s response to the ongoing political crisis in South Korea and their course of engagement thereafter will be interesting to watch.
The imposition of Martial Law
Under Article 77 of the South Korean Constitution, the President has the authority to declare the martial law in times of war, armed conflict, or similar national emergencies. This provision grants power, including the ability to suspend civil liberties, impose censorship, and override normal judicial process. However, the context of the imposition of martial law in South Korea both in the past and present does not falls in any of these above categories. For instance, in 1980 when General Chun Doo-hwan declared martial law to suppress the uprising the Gwangju Uprising, a pro-democracy protest that was met with a violent military crackdown.
Zooming into the present, the saga of events started on the night of 3rd December 2024, when former Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol went on television to declare the imposition of “martial law”. This unpredictable decision was based on the recommendation of the Defence Minister Kim Yong Hyun. The reasons behind this drastic step was to oust the “anti-state forces” and to protect the South Koreans from “North Korean communist forces”. President Yoon had also sent military and police to the National Assembly and National Election Commission. Furthermore, with the imposition of the martial law, a ban was imposed on the activities of political activists and lawmakers. This led to snowballing of events which posed a serious challenge to Yoon’s position and administration. On 4th December, 192 lawmakers of the National Assembly nullified Yoon’s martial law. On the same day, Yoon gave a speech on television announcing that he is lifting martial law. In short, the martial law lasted only for six hours.
However, by then the opposition gained support and submitted a motion to impeach Yoon. What followed next was high voltage events which were a combination of party politics of People’s Power Party around Yoon’s resignation and impeachment demands by the Opposition. The first attempt of impeachment by the National Assembly was held on 7th December. This was followed by the second attempt on 14th December. This time the National Assembly impeached Yoon with the support of 204 of the 300 lawmakers in the National Assembly. It led to the suspension of the Presidential power of Yoon and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo became acting President. On 31st December, Seoul Western District Court issued a warrant to detain Yoon. This order unfolded into a series of untoward events which finally led to formal arrest of Yoon on 19th January 2025.
The impeachment of President Yoon which took place on 14th December 2024, is now being looked upon by the Constitution Court. According to the established provisions, the Constitutional Court will declare the result by 14th June 2025.
Following the impeachment incident of Yoon, the tenure of acting President Han Duck-soo lasted till 27th December 2024 when he was impeached by the National Assembly. The reason behind Han Duck-soo’s impeachment was that he refused to immediately appoint three judges in the Constitution Court, which was demanded by the opposition party. Following his removal, Choi Sang-mok, Deputy Prime Minister and Ministry of Finance and Economy, has become the acting President, the third in command in the current administration. This shows how the political crisis has snowballed into a constitutional crisis which is likely going to impact economic and security dimensions. Furthermore, internal political turmoil within People’s Power Party has came into the forefront which culminated with the resignation of the former party head Han Dong-hoon and the party is now headed by Kweon Seong-dong, People’s Power Party’s acting leader- a close aid and part of the Pro-Yoon faction. This also points at the existing factionalism in South Korea’s party politics both internally and externally.
Factors behind the imposition of Martial Law
The current stage of political crisis in South Korea is a result of culmination of events which began with the Korean Parliamentary Election in April 2024. Although the election resulted in the landslide victory of the liberal opposition party i.e. Democratic Party, but was unable to form majority in the Parliament. According to the Stanford sociologist and APARC Director Gi-Wook Shin, there has been a decline in Korean democracy over the years along with the rise in illiberalism, populism and polarization. In addition, this election had resulted in a strong presence of opposition in the National Assembly and comparatively lesser presence of People’s Power Party.
It resulted in an increase of deadlocks in the National Assembly due to large presence of the opposition party i.e. Democratic Party. It was also followed by 22 impeachment proceedings against Yoon administration officials and deep cuts in Yoon’s proposed budget. Yoon’s People’s Power Party won the April 2024 election with a marginal majority and out of 300 seats in National Assembly 192 seats were occupied by the opposition. The rest of 108 seat went to the People’s Power Party. One has to understand here that South Korea is following a presidential system that ensures that legislative elections do not directly affect the presidency. President Yoon Suk Yeol, elected in 2022, should have served his fixed five-year term until 2027, as the country does not allow presidential re-election. In order to remove the President, he has to be impeached with a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly (which is done now by the opposition party) and followed by approval from the Constitutional Court (Awaited).
The composition of National Assembly has been a major obstacle for Yoon’s administration in terms of cooperation, budget allocation and removal of Yoon’s appointee and passage of bills. However, the internal political discrepancy would be better handled through political means rather than imposing martial law. This particular act has resulted in breach of trust and confidence among the public over Yoon’s administration and party. In addition, as politics in South Korea is divided between the Conservative and Progressive, this ongoing political crisis is going to deepen the fraction between the two.
Apart from the Constitutional Court which has launched a probe against Yoon’s impeachment, there are several other agencies which are involved- the Supreme Prosecutors Office (SPO), the National Police Agency (NPA), the Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials (CIO) and the Ministry of National Defence (MND). Several senior military figures have been arrested for alleged insurrection or abuse of power. Basically, the rest of the agencies apart from the Constitutional Court is looking at the criminality of Yoon’s actions.
If the Constitutional Court legitimates the impeachment of Yoon, an election for the Presidency will soon take place. The leader of the opposition i.e. Lee-Jae-myung of Democratic Party faced Yoon in the last election held in April 2024. Lee is currently facing charges of corruption and is not widely popular. He is also known for upholding an anti-US stance.
Furthermore, looking into the aspects of foreign policy and diplomacy, South Korea under the former Yoon administration had entered into a trilateral security arrangement with Japan and the U.S. in August 2023. The current political crisis in South Korea is going to pose a question over the longevity of Yoon’s foreign policy initiatives such as Indo-Pacific Strategy and the Korea-ASEAN Solidarity Initiative (KASI). In addition, the coming of the Trump administration adds another layer of complexity. The question remains whether the next administration of South Korea will follow the course of foreign policy laid by Yoon’s administration. Henceforth, there are multiple challenges that South Korea is facing currently. In the longer run, without a stable administration in South Korea, it will be excruciatingly challenging to this state to address global issues pragmatically.
Nevertheless it is too early to predict the course of politics in South Korea, given the presence of layered complex factors. But, for now the political crisis is going to loom over the state without an elected stable government.
