2024 has been the election year for most of the democracies in the world. In one of the Earliest Modern Democracies, the US, the election was completed, and Trump returned as the 47th president of the US to the White House. The return is historic as Trump has become the only Republican candidate who has won the electoral votes along with the popular votes in the last 20 years, which shows Americans have trusted Trump’s election promises.
Scholars and policy analysts from different parts of the globe have started speculating the ‘Trump effect’ on the foreign policy of their countries and the region. Following the same trend, the article will focus on the future and meaning of Trump as the US president for the Indo-Pacific region, specifically the South China Sea, considering the growing importance of the region for global trade, security and geopolitics in recent decades.
One of the famous rhetoric that Trump used in his political campaign was “Make America Great Again”, which, in practice, aspires to be more protectionist in his policies. In his first term in the White House, Trump laid down the Indo-Pacific Strategy and cited the region as “the single most consequential region for America’s future.” According to the US National Defence Strategy, China remains the top threat to the US economy and national security. The sign of regional competition between the US and China is clearly visible in the South China Sea. Trump is well aware of the world’s geopolitical situation and, therefore, repeatedly mentions putting heavy tariffs on China if elected to power during his political campaign to safeguard the US’s economic interests.
Countries in the Indo-Pacific region generally use hedging (a national security or alignment strategy undertaken by one state toward another, featuring a mix of cooperative and confrontational elements) to pursue their national interests. Since the previous decade, the Chinese posture in the region has been aggressive, including its claims in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait through an imaginary nine-dash line. The countries in the region, such as Taiwan, Philippines, South Korea, Japan, and Australia, view China as a power that can initiate conflict in the region. The defence outlook in the region is highly influenced by the Chinese economic might and military coercion by unlawful maritime claims and maritime border disputes, which have geopolitical and geo-economical repercussions for the US and its allies in the region.
Keeping the above-mentioned background in mind, It will be easy to understand the geopolitical and geo-economic battle between China and the US in the Indo-Pacific. Trump returns to the White House, his unique and most discussed cabinet picks and their approach could reshape how the US engages with key regional players. The experts anticipate a complex and potentially volatile geopolitical landscape. The overarching theme among analysts is an expectation of increased friction, particularly with China, and a more transactional approach to international relationships. The geopolitical and geo-economical dynamics can potentially be characterized by heightened tension and uncertainty. Experts like Jacques deLisle predict worse and less predictable U.S.-China relations, continuing existing friction over trade, technology restrictions, and Taiwan. Unlike hopes for a reset under the previous administration, Trump’s approach is expected to maintain a tough stance towards China, driven by bipartisan sentiment and a national security team comprised of notable “China hawks” such as Elise Stefanik, Mike Waltz, and Marco Rubio (Trump’s picks as United Nations ambassador, national security advisor, and secretary of state, respectively). The composition of Trump’s national security team signals a markedly aggressive stance towards China. These cabinet picks have demonstrated strong support for economic security, robust military positioning, and closer collaboration with regional allies. For instance, Mike Waltz has advocated for a more assertive military presence in the Indo-Pacific to counter China’s growing influence, while Elise Stefanik, the US’s Ambassador to the UN, has been proactive in addressing supply chain security and challenging China-based technology suppliers.
Regional allies are approaching this potential presidency with a mix of caution and strategic calculation. Countries like South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines are carefully assessing how Trump’s transactional foreign policy might impact their security and economic interests. The AUKUS defence pact, for example, is expected to continue but might face pressure from Trump’s administration for increased investment in the US defence industrial base.
Interestingly, some regional actors see potential opportunities in Trump’s approach. North Korea, in particular, appears hopeful about reopening nuclear negotiations, with defectors suggesting the country has already mapped out a potential strategy for engagement. Similarly, China’s official response has been circumspect, emphasizing a desire for mutual respect and peaceful coexistence while privately harbouring concerns about potential economic escalations.
However, the security landscape is not expected to shift dramatically. Felix Chang notes that many of the Biden administration’s efforts to counter aggressive Chinese behaviour originated during Trump’s first term, suggesting continuity in strategic approach. The emphasis is likely to remain on deterrence rather than persuasion, with continued efforts to deepen defence and security cooperation among regional allies.
Economic considerations will play a crucial role in shaping these relationships. Trump’s well-known transactional nature suggests that the depth of US commitment to regional allies might depend on the tangible benefits they can provide. Some Indo-Pacific countries may find themselves navigating a delicate balance between economic and security priorities, though the current economic conditions might make this negotiation less challenging than in previous years.
Ultimately, the potential Trump presidency represents a period of significant uncertainty for the Indo-Pacific region. While the broad strokes of US policy are expected to maintain a tough stance on China, the specific implementations and diplomatic nuances remain unpredictable, leaving regional actors to prepare for a potentially volatile and dynamic geopolitical environment.
