The Sahel’s Descent into Military Rule: Causes and Consequences

The Sahel region of West Africa has witnessed a troubling trend in recent years, with military coups sweeping through Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. 

Mali has experienced two military coups in recent years. On August 18, 2020, A group of army officers led by Colonel Assimi Goita overthrew President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita. Again, on May 24, 2021, Colonel Goita led a second coup, ousting the transitional president and prime minister who had been installed after the 2020 coup. 

Burkina Faso has also experienced two recent coups. On January 24, 2022, Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba led a military coup that overthrew President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré. The coup was triggered by growing discontent over the government’s failure to address rising insecurity from Islamist militants. Again, on September 30, 2022, Captain Ibrahim Traoré led another military takeover, ousting Damiba. Traoré cited a lack of progress in the fight against Islamist militants as the reason for this second coup. 

Niger’s most recent coup occurred on July 26, 2023. Members of the presidential guard, led by General Abdourahamane Tchiani, detained President Mohamed Bazoum and announced they had seized power. 

These takeovers represent a significant setback for democracy in the region and raise serious concerns about stability, security, and development. We must examine the underlying causes and potential repercussions of military rule in the Sahel to understand this phenomenon and its implications.

Roots of Instability and Military Takeover

After observing these events, a pertinent question would strike our mind, why in the first place is there a rise of military juntas in the region? Let’s try to figure out the reasons:

First and Foremost among these is the persistent challenge of insecurity. For over a decade, the Sahel has grappled with a growing jihadist insurgency, with groups linked to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State exploiting local grievances and porous borders to expand their influence. The failure of civilian governments to effectively combat this threat has eroded public trust and created an opening for military intervention.

Secondly but equally significant is the endemic corruption that plagues these nations. Years of mismanagement and graft have weakened state institutions and made them unable to provide essential services to their citizens. This governance deficit has fueled widespread frustration and disillusionment with democratic processes, making populations more receptive to promises of decisive action from military leaders.

Thirdly, economic stagnation and inequality also play a crucial role. Despite abundant natural resources, the Sahel countries struggle with widespread poverty, unemployment, and lack of opportunity. Climate change has exacerbated these challenges, disrupting traditional livelihoods and intensifying competition for scarce resources. The inability of elected governments to deliver tangible improvements in living standards has further undermined faith in civilian rule.

Fourthly, External influences have also shaped regional dynamics. The legacy of colonial borders, which artificially divided ethnic groups and created inherently unstable states, continues to haunt the Sahel. The presence of the French army and French interference in internal matters, along with the allegation of stealing natural resources, also contributed to the anti-French sentiments and erosion of public trust. More recently, geopolitical competition between Western powers and Russia has introduced new tensions, with Moscow capitalising on anti-French sentiment to expand its influence through private military contractors like the Wagner Group. However,one has to understand that the military juntas have never been a panacea for ingrained problems of any state. 

Consequences of Military Rule

After analysing the reasons for the rise of Military Juntas in the region, It will be sane to delve into the consequences of the junta rule and speculate their ability to eliminate the mentioned deep-rooted problems of the region.

Diplomatic Deterioration and Regional Destabilisation

The immediate aftermath of these coups has been a sharp deterioration in diplomatic relations with traditional partners. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has imposed sanctions on the military regimes, while Western donors have suspended aid and security cooperation. This isolation risks exacerbating the very problems that contributed to instability in the first place. The formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) this year among these three nations exhibits mentioned apprehension of instability. Strict sanctions can only exacerbate the situation by creating problems for ordinary people rather than the military regime. Hence, the solution lies on the diplomatic table, not in the sanction regime. 

The most concerning consequence is the potential for further regional destabilisation. Military takeovers can be contagious, inspiring similar actions in neighbouring countries. The concentration of power in the hands of military elites also raises the risk of internal power struggles and future coups, creating a cycle of instability that is difficult to break.

Human rights and economic repercussions

Human rights and civil liberties are likely to suffer, which is common in any military rule. Junta leaders often justify their actions by claiming the need for extraordinary measures to address security threats. This can lead to crackdowns on opposition figures, journalists, and civil society organisations, further eroding the foundations of democracy and the rule of law.

The economic repercussions of these coups could be severe and long-lasting. International sanctions and the suspension of aid will strain already fragile economies. Foreign investment, crucial for development, may dry up as companies become wary of political instability. This economic downturn could exacerbate social tensions and provide fertile ground for extremist recruitment.

Security and beyond

In terms of security, the military takeovers present a mixed picture. While the juntas may initially bring more focus and resources to counterterrorism efforts, their approach often relies heavily on force at the expense of addressing root causes. Moreover, the rupture in cooperation with Western partners could hamper intelligence sharing and operational support, potentially giving jihadist groups more room to manoeuvre.

The rise of military rule in the Sahel also has broader implications for Africa’s democratic trajectory. It challenges the notion of democratic consolidation on the continent and may embolden would-be autocrats elsewhere. This trend could undermine decades of progress towards more representative and accountable governance across Africa.

Holistic Approach to Move Forward

Addressing the Sahel crisis requires a comprehensive strategy beyond demanding an immediate return to civilian rule. Economic development is crucial, calling for investments in education, healthcare, and infrastructure, along with climate adaptation strategies and utilisation of local resources for citizens’ economic prosperity. Economic management may contribute to deradicalisation and long-term terrorism reduction. Security sector reform is essential, involving the professionalisation of armed forces, improved civilian oversight, and a holistic security approach incorporating community engagement. Regional and international cooperation must be recalibrated, maintaining dialogue channels while imposing necessary short-term sanctions. ECOWAS and the African Union should mediate conflicts and support democratic transitions, while Western partners must balance security concerns with development goals, respecting local sensitivities. Ultimately, sustainable solutions must be locally driven. External actors can provide support, but lasting change requires Sahelian societies to forge a new social contract addressing governance, security, and development issues. While the outlook seems bleak, addressing the root causes of instability and working towards inclusive governance can reverse democratic backsliding. The international community should support this process, but the Sahel people must chart their own path forward.