As things are unwinding in Central Asia and Indo Pacific, the analysts and think tanks are in keen watching Russia’s stand in recent incidents. This article analyses Russia’s position and its potential in altering the world order. Also, this article explains why US should allow India to continue its strategic relations with Russia and how it helps to continue a US led Multilateral world order. Russia is exposed The erstwhile position of Russia as a collective security provider is already highly debated and put into scrutiny by many analysts and academics. As expected, Russia’s pro longed war with Ukraine has exposed its real military strength (weakness). This can be corroborated with Moscow’s recent multiple military setbacks and the taking down of Russia’s Su34 fighter jets and A50 Radar planes by Ukrainian army. The more Moscow engages itself in the war, the more it becomes weak as it appears to be that it may not sustain war with Ukraine forever. Will Russia decide to use nuclear deterrence becoming desperate to avoid humiliation is a question to be answered. The China factor After the war with Ukraine has started, Russia’s trade with China has increased alarmingly. In a recent meeting with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, Xi Jinping announced that the trade value between China and Russia has surpassed $200 bn. On a closer inspection into the data, the trade balance figures show that Russia’s trade is YOY becoming one sided and is quite dependent on imports from China. This delicate position of Russia has caused a shift of weight on the Chinese corner in the power triangle of US, Russia and China. This shift in the axis should have awakened US and its security experts in order to device a mitigation plan. But how? India – The flag bearer of Multilateralism It is to be noted that not only China but also India was key in cashing-in Russia’s exchequer during the latter’s war with Ukraine. Though India too has gained from Russia’s prolonged war, its trade balance with Russia is not as one sided as it is the case with China. As per Ministry of commerce, India, the total bilateral trade value during 2022-23 was just US $49.36 bn when compared to China’s US $200 bn.  The above figures clearly indicate Russia’s growing dependency on China, and leaving things to go on in China’s way will further strengthen China’s muscular Nationalism. Instead of being skeptical and critical of India’s strategic ties with Russia, the US, if not endorse, should play a mute atleast for the time being. It is essential for the US to stop Russia from strengthening China’s hands and thereby stop Russia from being a catalyst to China’s hegemony. If bringing Russia to the table for talks and workout a new status quo is not an option, then allowing India to engage Russia and stopping it completely fall into the hands of China is essential. This is not only in the interest of the US but also in the interest of Russia, keeping in mind that currently for US, China is the foremost rivalry and not Russia.  Let India do its job of multi alignment and thereby diversify Russia’s needs. Rather than allowing Russia to strengthen China’s muscle power, It is desirable for US to maintain a US-led multilateralism without spending millions of dollars or loosing thousands of lives. 

With things escalating in south East China coupled with strained ties with India, China has opened itself for a two front challenge. Though it may not lead to a full military scale operation but will definitely become a litmus test for China as well as India. This article discusses recent trends in the Sino-India relationship and possible course of actions expected from both the countries. China is known to frequently coerce India Militarily by violating the earlier Border agreements that these two countries have agreed to. Whenever there is an incursion, it is followed by peace talks ,always initiated by India, and a new agreement which is drafted mostly on China’s terms. Thereby pushing India to accept a new status quo. Though India has made efforts to settle questions on LAC, China has intentionally avoided it. So far, the border agreements were only about maintaining a status quo and cooperation limited only to confidence building measures. Even during the bilateral talks China carefully refrain from finding a solution for the border issue and limit the talks to economy and trade. Post Galwan trend  Post 2020 Galwan clashes, there is evidently a shift in India’s approach in framing its foreign policy with respect to China. India has moved away from its usual ways of finding a solution, that is through diplomacy. By internationalizing the LAC issue, India has clearly sent a message that it is no longer in a mood to appease China (as perceived by the West). Also, India’s alignment towards the west is now witnessed through its engagement with Taiwan. India so far has maintained a cautious restraint on the issue but recently in 2022 India has raised its concerns regarding the development in the Taiwan strait. India’s increased economic ties with Taiwan is also noteworthy to gauge the former’s alignment towards the west, thereby widening its bargaining power. China and India – Course of actions Though a military action is not expected in the short term, neither at Sino-India border nor in Taiwan, Beijing would prepare itself for a series of incidents to happen in the next two decades. Even though it is still militarily and economically superior to India, Beijing has to realize that conflict with India is no more a zero-sum game. A stable and peaceful neighbourhood is essential for India to consolidate its economic strength for a decade ahead. This economic strength is crucial for India to rise as a regional power and to strive for power symmetry with China. In turn China may try all the means to destabilize India and keep India back on the fence as usual and let the latter not align further with the west. More coercion from the Chinese side on the Indian border is expected, but China cannot continue doing it beyond a point as it has other things to consider. India has to capitalize the economic slump in China and attract more investment towards it. For this to happen India should not put the fire off and maintain a strained relationship with China. This will ensure more favours from the west, mainly economic. Considering the above points, it is seen that for the first time in history, India is trying to draft China’s foreign policy as it is usually the other way around.