Senkaku or Diaoyu Dao (as calls in China) grabs global attention with an involving overlapping claim and shaping Indo-Pacific freedom of trade and stability amidst global fluctuation. It is one aspect of contentious issue between Japan and China in East Asia. It is a maritime territorial dispute between Japan and the People’s Republic of China. Recently, new dynamics have emerged after clashes reported between Japanese and Chinese vessels of illegally entering each other’s contested water. On 25 March 2025, looking beyond blame game theory, the ships were withdrawn by both countries to de-escalate tension amidst uncertainty. This signals mis-understanding and consistent provocations could lead further escalation in the East China Sea, for which these countries can not afford to wage war against each other as observing outcome of the Ukraine crisis and the “America first” policy in the Trump 2.0 as peacemaker promised during election campaigns.
Geo-economic relevance
The Diaoyu or Senkaku (calls in Japan) islands dispute comprises several uninhabited islands and barren rocks that covers 1.4 square miles. It falls in the sub-ocean of East China Sea. It is a strategic waterway that connects several narrow chokepoints to trade and transport goods across the regions. It has both geostrategic and geoeconomics significance for international security. As per the U.S Energy Information Administration, the East China Sea has proven the potential of living and non-living resources, namely, 22 million barrels of petroleum and other liquids, 482 billion cubic feet of natural gas, and more needs to be explored, and 95 % of total petroleum products that go through this strategic waterway destined for the Indo-Pacific economies.
Moreover, in the year 2023 alone, total 73 million b/d of both petroleum and related products were shipped globally via maritime transport, among them 27 million b/d, which is around 35% of those shipments traversed the East China Sea. Therefore, the route could be an engine for the East Asian economies. Maintaining peace and tranquillity is essential for countries.
Claims by disputed parties
With regard to vessels clash between two countries, the Japanese Nippon says the ships intrusion was a “longest intrusion” for 92 hours and 8 minutes in 2025 than 80 hours and 36 minutes recorded in 2023. With that, the activities of China near the islands have escalated, recounted by the Japan Minister. It is also connected with China’s Gray Zone strategy to reclaim its lost territories through several means, such as military, economic and others. On the other side, the Chinese sources maintain that multiple Japanese fishing boats entered China’s territorial waters, Diaoyu Dao, and in response to that necessary measures were taken up. The CCG Spokesperson Li Deju issued a statement and insisted to that country “to immediately cease all illegal activities in the water”. Each party accuses another for violation of its territorial water and jurisdiction, given the disputed nature of maritime claims under the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention.
On 28 September 2012, the PRC released “the White Paper on Diaoyu Dao”. In that paper, the five key assumptions were made, are now China’s key positions, about islands which are China’s inherent territory, which was grabbed by Japan, backroom deals between US and Japan declared as illegal and invalid, Japan’s claims totally unfounded and China to safeguard with resolute measures its sovereignty over islands. With a similar tone and consistency, Japanese foreign ministry proclaims that “in the light of historical facts and international law the Senkaku islands are an integral part of Japan and the country continues to strive for peace and stability in the region”. Further, Japan believes it is not later than December 1971 that the Chinese authority expressed territorial sovereignty for the first time. However, China says in the 15th century it was first recorded in Chinese navigation books and in the 16th century, “Diaoyu islands had been included in the coastal defence of China’s Ming dynasty and following Qing dynasty, laws and regulations placed the islands under Taiwanese local government then.” They also believe that the Cairo Declaration and the Potsdam Proclamations need to be carried out and implemented.
The Independent reported that the March 2025 incident shows accusation of China being following “two-faced diplomacy” after entering Japanese waters following high level talks with South Korea and Japan.
Global Fluctuations and Uncertainty in Trump 2.0
National interests change and shape policy preferences in foreign policy. Report suggests that Trump’s “policy U-turn” is encouraging nations in the Asia-Pacific region to be strategically independent and cooperate with each other as the US appears no longer “a reliable and security partner”. The fact that Europe is struggling to provide security without American support is not an incorrect assumption as Raja Mohan argued that after Trump’s pull back the Europe finding difficulty to provide military assistance to Ukraine and debating long term strategies to deal with Russia as a challenge.
The Raisina speech by the Prime Minister of New Zealand cautioned in New Delhi that in this time of strategic uncertainty the three big challenges are: “rules giving way to power, a shift from economics to security and from efficiency to resilience” and anticipated the region where “no one country comes to dominate”. The region and its security need to be protected by the countries part of that region.
Conclusion
Senkaku islands dispute is an alarmed show of vulnerabilities from both disputed parties, they should resolve it through dialogue and diplomacy rather than inviting external powers to arouse the sentiments of other entities for broader security in the region. To achieve long term progress and elevation in relationships, mis-calculations over contested water need to be underlined and work on other aspects of relations, such as cooperation in the blue economy, climate resilience and so on, and present opportunities for global south countries not in words, but in actions.
