Russia has significantly changed its foreign policy approach in recent years, focussing more on BRICS and less on growing regional organisations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). This shift in strategy demonstrates how Russia’s goals have changed in response to the global order, primarily due to the Ukraine crisis and the ensuing Western sanctions. The RIC (Russia, India, and China), established in 2001, is where BRICS started.
From BRICS to BRICS+
Russia established close ties with two emerging world powers through this trilateral organisation, facilitating trade, energy, security, and economic cooperation. South Africa and Brazil were invited to join the intergovernmental organisation as it gained popularity, creating BRICS as it exists today. With the addition of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates in January 2024, the BRICS alliance has grown from five to nine members. Additionally, in September 2024, Turkey applied for membership, joining the 14 other nations awaiting approval—most of which are energy-related superpowers like Kazakhstan and Kuwait. With this expansion, BRICS now account for about half of the world’s population and 37% of global GDP. The new members bring different viewpoints and interests, which could make relations inside the organisation more complex. Although the growth increases BRICS’s international power, it also raises the possibility of disputes amongst potential members, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran. Though academics caution that it may someday threaten U.S. currency dominance and change international institutions, Western nations have mostly ignored the development.
Russian interests significantly influenced the establishment and growth of BRICS. At first, the organisation allowed Russia to oppose Western hegemony and establish a counterbalance to Western power in international organisations. This aligns with Russia’s long-standing objective of creating a multipolar global order. The fact that BRICS has grown beyond its initial five members indicates a change in Russia’s approach. To challenge Western domination, Russia hopes to build a larger coalition of countries by admitting rising economies. The most obvious example is how the economy has changed, with BRICS gradually catching up to the G7. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) projects that the combined economy of the BRICS+ countries (including partner nations) would surpass those of the G7 around 2045.
- The GDP of the G7 was 40 trillion USD in 2020, whereas that of the BRICS+ was 20 trillion USD.
- These amounts are projected to reach 30 trillion USD for BRICS+ and 50 trillion USD for G7 by 2025.
- The figures are projected to reach 60 trillion USD for the G7 and 40 trillion USD for BRICS+ by 2030.
- The gap will continue to close by 2040, and both groups’ GDPs are predicted to reach USD 100 trillion in 2045.
How Russia uses BRICS as a Strategic Outlet
Russia’s drive for expansion, which was primarily fuelled by Western sanctions after it invaded Ukraine, is at the core of BRICS’ development. These sanctions have significantly hampered Russia’s capacity to conduct international commerce and finance, especially in the energy sector. Russia has consequently been compelled to look for new markets and alliances for its energy exports. Russia has multiple chances to lessen the impact of Western sanctions thanks to the BRICS expansion. Russia may now investigate new opportunities for energy cooperation and commerce thanks to the bloc’s substantial oil production capability brought about by the accession of nations like the United Arab Emirates. Russia may be able to get around Western limits on its energy exports. In addition, the BRICS nations are attempting to lessen their dependence on the US dollar and create alternative financial systems. This would enable Russia to deal with energy without encountering barriers from banking networks dominated by the West. Russian businesses now have more chances to invest in and build energy infrastructure in other BRICS nations because of the organisation’s emphasis on infrastructure development. In this case, NATO plays a variety of roles. Russia is now closer to other BRICS nations looking for alternatives to Western military alliances as a result of NATO’s increased presence in Eastern Europe after Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia is more determined than ever to use BRICS to check Western influence.
NATO’s emphasis on energy security in Eastern Europe has indirectly contributed to Russia’s need to find new markets and partners for its energy exports through BRICS. The ongoing geopolitical tensions between NATO and Russia have created an environment where Russia sees BRICS expansion as a strategic necessity to counterbalance Western influence and maintain its global position. However, NATO’s involvement in Ukraine has also exposed divisions within BRICS on supporting Russia militarily, which was evidenced by the recent BRICS summit in Kazan, where Russia failed to gain consensus on Ukraine. The final declaration merely stated: “We recall national positions concerning the situation in and around Ukraine” and that “all states should act consistently with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter in their entirety and interrelation.”
This demonstrates the complex and selective nature of the members of BRICS regarding their voices against conflict, which strikes a compromise between maintaining positive relations with several critical international actors and their desire for collective action. The growth of BRICS could have a significant effect on US hegemony. BRICS challenges the conventional domination of Western institutions and standards by establishing a different group of developed and developing countries. The expansion of BRICS is the culmination of the slow breakdown of a unipolar global order that has defined international relations since the conclusion of the Cold War, even though it is not explicitly intended to challenge American dominance.
A Non Unanimous Alliance
The UN vote trends during the conflict between Russia and Ukraine show divergent allegiances among BRICS countries. Certain members supported resolutions denouncing Russia’s activities, while others voted against them or abstained. This split demonstrates how difficult it is for Russia to get the full backing of its BRICS members on delicate subjects. Additionally, the absence of BRICS members at the Western-organized and Ukraine-led Summit for Peace highlights the bloc’s hesitancy to support a side in the war. Statements made by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the recent BRICS meeting, which Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted, urging “peace and not war”, further demonstrated this. This position highlights how BRICS members must carefully balance their ties to Russia and their wish to keep Western powers at bay.
It will be essential to see how the alliance handles these conflicting interests as BRICS develops under Russia’s direction. Will a more unified force able to alter international governance systems result from increased membership? Or will its effectiveness be constrained by internal issues and outside forces? Regardless of the result, Russia’s focus on BRICS signifies a change in its foreign policy approach. Moscow and Putin are placing their bets on a future in which rising economies will be more influential in determining international affairs by joining this multilateral institution. It remains to be seen if this gamble pays out. One thing is sure, though: the development of BRICS, which Russia’s strategic manoeuvring has aided, represents a crucial phase in continuously reshaping the world political scene.
