Lebanon stands at a crossroads, with profound political changes unfolding, the weakening of Hezbollah, and the transformation of its regional alliances. The newly appointed Prime Minister-designate, Nawaf Salam, takes office amidst great turmoil on the internal and external levels. Hezbollah, which has long dominated Lebanon’s power structure, has been in decline ever since the death of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, the loss of its key ally in Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, and the growing economic and political constraints on its patron, Iran. This period continues as Lebanon’s sectarian-based confessional political system remains a contentious topic, with louder calls for reform. At the same time, figures like President Joseph Aoun are emerging who have been supported by the West, and the United States is also trying to contain Hezbollah’s role in forming a government. Such developments raise crucial questions: Will Lebanon tilt toward the West or remain in its historical stance of resistance? Can Salam mend the broken governance system of Lebanon, or will sectarian interests stop him? And what does Hezbollah’s decline mean for the country’s role in the regional balance of power?
Lebanon’s Confessional Political System and the Challenges of Reform
Lebanon’s governance is based on confessionalism, a system that allocates power according to religious sects. The President is always a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim, and the Speaker of Parliament a Shia Muslim. While designed to ensure representation, this system has historically fuelled sectarian divisions, political gridlock, and corruption. Critics argue that confessionalism has entrenched elite power structures, making reform difficult and leaving Lebanon vulnerable to external influence. Salam has been a strong critic of confessionalism and has been for a national identity that is not sectarian but more Arab in essence.
However, dismantling or reforming such a deeply ingrained system would not be an easy task. Many political parties benefit from patronage networks provided by the system. Hezbollah relies on the confessional system for its autonomous military and political influence. While Salam has reached out to all factions, including Hezbollah, the group may be wary of his leadership, fearing that his opposition to confessionalism could undermine their power.
The Emergence of Nawaf Salam and the Consequences of His Leadership
Nawaf Salam, a seasoned diplomat and judge, brings a unique vision for Lebanon. Known for his staunch advocacy for Palestinian rights, Salam has taken strong anti-Israel positions on the international stage. As Lebanon’s representative to the United Nations, he often aligned the country with regimes such as Iran, Syria, Belarus, and Cuba, reflecting his ideological leanings. Reports from UN Watch document that Salam consistently condemned Israel in international forums, making him a controversial figure in global diplomacy. This marks an appointment that does not forebode Lebanon will embrace the full pro-Western approach under him though pragmatic engagement with international institutions. However, Salam’s leadership is also a potential turning point: he is in no way an explicit champion or supporter of Iran or the Shia resistance Axis. Salam is not easily classified as being pro-West or pro-Iran. He stands very strongly with Palestinian rights and Arab unity but is pragmatic enough to preserve diplomatic flexibility. His role for the cause in a UN General Assembly resolution against Israeli actions, particularly one in support of South Africa, against Israel becomes salient.
At the same time, Salam has extended an olive branch to Hezbollah, signalling that his government will not actively seek to dismantle Lebanon’s resistance axis. However, Hezbollah’s own internal uncertainty may lead to apprehension towards Salam’s leadership, fearing that Lebanon could drift away from its traditional anti-Israel positioning. This also leads to the surfacing of apprehensions surrounding the possible decline in the importance of the Palestinian cause. Thus, whether his government can result in meaningful reform or not would very much depend on how he navigates Lebanon’s internal divisions while maintaining Lebanon’s historical Arab nationalist stance.
Strategic importance of Lebanon in the Middle East
Lebanon is a crucial player in the geopolitics of the Middle East due to its geographical and political position. Situated between Israel and Syria, it has served as a buffer state in most conflicts between forces backed by Iran and Western allies. Its Mediterranean coastline also gives it a strategic position for the economic and military interests of the region.
Lebanon has been the centre of proxy conflicts for years, especially between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Both the Iranian-backed Hezbollah and the Sunni-dominated political factions aligned with Saudi Arabia still vie for influence. Any shift in Lebanon’s power structure may reshape the regional balance of power, affecting the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict, Syria’s post-war reconstruction, and even Iran’s strategic depth in the Levant.
For example, skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah on the Lebanon-Israel border had threatened in the past to erupt into full-scale wars. Weakening its leadership under Salam would likely lead to a decrease in hostilities with Israel, while, if Hezbollah feels its position is under threat, it will escalate its tensions against Lebanon to prove its need to take Lebanon into another war.
The Decline of Hezbollah: Leadership Crisis and Regional Isolation
Once the most powerful military and political force in Lebanon, Hezbollah now faces unprecedented challenges. The death of Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike in September 2024 has created a leadership vacuum that the organization has struggled to fill. Nasrallah’s charismatic leadership was central to Hezbollah’s dominance, and his loss has left the group in disarray.
Adding to Hezbollah’s woes is the overthrow of its main ally, Bashar al-Assad, who was ousted by rebels in Syria in late 2024. For years, Syria had provided logistical, military, and financial support to Hezbollah, which served as a vital link between the group and its patron, Iran. With Assad gone, Hezbollah has lost a vital supply route and a political stronghold that allowed it to operate with relative freedom.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s backbone in terms of funding- Iran, has been going through a phase of economic and political instability. The weakening of its network of anti-Israel militias has further aggravated their position. In addition to this, Tehran is struggling with domestic protests, economic sanctions, and strategic isolation. All of this indicates a future when Hezbollah can no longer rely fully upon unconditional Iranian support. This has in turn had a profound impact on Hezbollah’s projection of power, both domestically and in the region.
The United States and its allies have moved to capitalize on Hezbollah’s vulnerabilities, actively pushing to block the group’s influence in Lebanon’s government. In the beginning of 2025, reports suggested that the United States was trying to pressure Lebanese leaders to block Hezbollah or its allies from appointing the next finance minister, a step aimed at further curtailing the group’s financial and political sway. This step by the Biden administration has reinforced Lebanon’s military, thus ensuring that the state security forces remain independent of Hezbollah’s influence.
The Amal Movement and Shia Politics
While Hezbollah is in decline, Shia political power is strong in Lebanon thanks mainly to the Amal Movement under Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. Amal takes a very crucial role in the formation of the government since only Amal and Hezbollah are allowed to nominate Shia candidates to the ministerial position. Amal differs from Hezbollah, since it was more pragmatic and open to negotiations historically. In February 2024, after several of its members were killed in clashes with the Israeli army in southern Lebanon, Berri announced that Amal was prepared to enter into resistance against Israel. This would suggest that the group is committed to Lebanon’s anti-Israel position but also that it may be looking to define a more independent role, independent of Hezbollah. If Amal distanced itself from Hezbollah, it might help for a more balanced political atmosphere in Lebanon to enable it to draw away from Iranian influence yet with a strong Shia presence in government.
US and Lebanon: Geopolitics and the Ceasefire with Israel
The United States has taken an active role in determining Lebanon’s politics in that area of securing a permanent ceasefire with Israel. Contrary to that expectation, the U.S. does not want Israel to escalate conflicts with Lebanon, for this may destabilize the broader region and disrupt the ongoing diplomatic efforts in the Middle East. The administration previously issued a warning to Israel that warned them of the need for regional stability over military confrontation in breaking the ceasefire. Another indication of Western efforts to stabilize Lebanon is the election of Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s President in January 2025—backed by the U.S., France, and Saudi Arabia. Aoun is a former army commander who should be seen as a delicate counterbalance to Hezbollah: he has a profile as a leader who can reassert the state’s control over armed groups. However, his presidency has not been without controversy, as reports reveal that Lebanese military officials have leaked intelligence to Hezbollah, casting the security forces into a significant internal division.
Lebanon’s Uncertain Future
At this crossroads, Lebanon balances domestic political changes, regional pressures, and increasingly shifting regional landscapes. Still, appointments of Nawaf Salam as the Prime Minister-designate, the decline of Hezbollah, and the emergence of U.S.-backed figures like Joseph Aoun indicate that there is a possibility for a realignment of Lebanon’s domestic and foreign policies. But deep-seated sectarian divisions, economic instability, and the influence of external actors such as Iran, the U.S., and Saudi Arabia make Lebanon’s trajectory uncertain. If Salam can navigate Lebanon’s fractured political environment and maintain the country’s historical resistance stance, but at the same time pragmatically align with the West like countries such as UAE and Saudi Arabia, he might be a transformative leader. But if Hezbollah is to reassert itself through military escalation, Lebanon may again become a battleground for regional proxy conflicts. The coming months will determine whether Lebanon moves towards reform and stability or continues its legacy of political deadlock and external manipulation.
