The Horn of Africa has long been a theatre of rivalry, and Ethiopia’s quest for maritime access has been central to its geopolitical strategies. Since losing its coastline after Eritrea’s independence in 1993, Ethiopia has faced significant challenges as a landlocked nation. While critical, the dependency on Djibouti for maritime trade left Ethiopia vulnerable to high costs, logistical inefficiencies, and the geopolitical sway of its smaller neighbour. Seeking to mitigate these vulnerabilities, Ethiopia ventured into alternatives like Somaliland, whose strategic port of Berbera offers an enticing trade route. This article will discuss how the world’s largest landlocked country’s aspiration for sea access led to the signing of a deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland in early 2024, thereby leading to the re- emergence of the decades-old territorial dispute with Somalia.
In January 2024, Ethiopia signed a memorandum with Somaliland, indicating a possible path to formally recognizing Somaliland’s independence in return for exclusive port access. While this move could have diversified Ethiopia’s trade routes, it provoked a fierce backlash from Somalia, which considers Somaliland an inalienable part of its sovereign territory. Somalia’s vehement objections escalated the situation, triggering a military build-up and diplomatic offensives. The stakes transcended Ethiopia and Somalia; a full-blown conflict could have destabilized the region, disturbed trade routes, and provided extremist groups with fertile ground to exploit the chaos. Both nations eventually sought dialogue over confrontation, acknowledging these high stakes, with Turkey stepping in as a pivotal mediator to broker peace.
Turkey as Mediator: A Strategic Victory
Turkey’s intervention in the Ethiopia-Somalia standoff underscores its growing diplomatic stature in global geopolitics. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey orchestrated three rounds of negotiations, culminating in an agreement that threads a delicate balance between Ethiopia’s maritime aspirations and Somalia’s territorial integrity. The deal, set for finalization in April 2025, grants Ethiopia maritime access under Somalia’s sovereign framework, a significant step in easing tensions and averting immediate conflict. This agreement allows Ethiopia and Somalia to refocus on pressing domestic issues. For Ethiopia, it alleviates trade bottlenecks and provides respite to address internal ethnic tensions and economic instability. The deal reinforces its sovereignty for Somalia while providing a diplomatic triumph in a region fraught with fragmentation and insurgency. Meanwhile, Turkey’s role as a mediator has burnished its reputation as a power broker in the Horn of Africa. Ankara’s influence in the region has been steadily growing through a combination of economic investments, humanitarian aid, and strategic partnerships. This mediation effort cements Turkey’s role as a pragmatic and trusted negotiator, opening avenues for Turkish companies to invest in infrastructure projects tied to the agreement.
Regional Implications: Winners and Somaliland’s Setback
The Ethiopia-Somalia agreement, brokered by Turkey under the Ankara Declaration, offers a cautious respite in a volatile region by addressing Ethiopia’s troop presence in Somalia and maritime access. It
strengthens Somalia’s sovereignty and provides Ethiopia with a framework to diversify its reliance on Djibouti. However, Somaliland’s aspirations for international recognition faced a major setback with the Turkey-mediated Ethiopia-Somalia agreement. Despite its self-declared independence in 1991, Somaliland remains unrecognized globally. Earlier in 2024, Ethiopia’s maritime deal with Somaliland, granting Ethiopia coastline access, seemed to align mutual interests and bolster Somaliland’s recognition hopes. However, the recent Ethiopia-Somalia agreement endorsed Somalia’s sovereignty over maritime negotiations, effectively sidelining Ethiopia’s commitments to Somaliland. This shift casts doubt on Ethiopia’s long-term strategy and undermines Somaliland’s diplomatic progress, marking a significant obstacle in its quest for international legitimacy.
The fragile peace also exists amid broader geopolitical dynamics. Ethiopia’s alignment with Somalia contrasts its previous support for Somaliland, destabilizing the Horn of Africa. Somaliland’s quest for independence, bolstered by the UAE’s $300 million Berbera port investment, creates additional friction. The Trump administration’s potential recognition of Somaliland, supported by U.S. Republicans, may escalate tensions, pressuring China, which backs Somalia’s sovereignty to counter Taiwan’s ties with Somaliland. India might exploit these developments to counterbalance China’s regional influence. With Turkey solidifying its influence, the Horn of Africa remains precarious. Sustained peace will require transparent negotiations, sustained international commitment, and a resolution of lingering disputes, including Ethiopia’s balancing act between Somaliland and Somalia, extremist threats, and the overarching territorial conflicts that shape the region’s history.
The recent Ethiopian attack on Somali troops in Doolow threatens the Ankara Declaration. Ethiopia’s alleged intervention in favor of Jubaland forces escalated hostilities, leading Somalia to accuse Ethiopia of breaching its sovereignty. This incident undermines the agreement’s potential to stabilize Ethiopia- Somalia relations and further complicates Ethiopia’s maritime strategy.
Egypt’s Strategic Dilemma
The Ethiopia-Somalia accord reverberated far beyond its signatories, delivering a significant setback to Egypt. Cairo, a longstanding rival of Addis Ababa, has strategically aligned with Mogadishu to counter Addis Ababa’s influence in the Horn of Africa. Egypt’s interests are deeply rooted in the Nile dispute, where Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) poses a perceived existential threat to Egypt’s water security. By fostering closer ties with Somalia, Egypt aimed to encircle Ethiopia diplomatically and impede its maritime ambitions. Turkey’s mediation disrupted these calculations, granting Ethiopia an alternative sea route and strengthening its regional position. This development diminishes Egypt’s leverage, leaving it grappling with a diminished foothold in the Horn of Africa. Turkey’s ascendancy in the region—a sphere where Egypt once held sway—has also intensified Cairo’s strategic concerns. The dynamics underscore a recalibration of power in the area, where Egypt’s traditional influence faces challenges from emerging actors like Turkey.
India’s Emerging Role in the Horn of Africa’s Geopolitical Dynamics
India’s role in the Ethiopia-Somaliland-Somalia dispute offers significant strategic opportunities to counter China’s influence and expand its presence in the Horn of Africa. As China supports Somalia’s sovereignty over Somaliland, partly due to Somaliland’s ties with Taiwan, India could strengthen its partnership with Somaliland to counterbalance China. The region’s strategic location near critical maritime routes makes it vital for India to secure access to ports like Berbera, enhancing maritime security and economic interests. Diplomatic engagement with Somaliland could also align with India’s broader outreach to Africa, positioning India as a constructive partner in regional stability while fostering ties with the United States and UAE. This approach could boost India’s influence in the Gulf and Africa, contributing to its energy security and economic goals. However, India must carefully navigate these dynamics to avoid straining its broader African relationships or complicating its delicate ties with China and other regional stakeholders.
