The environment of International politics has become hot after Trump’s return to the White House. Apart from signing a flurry of executive orders, Trump reiterated the US’s interest in acquiring Greenland and the Panama Canal either through economic coercion or military force. On Greenland, Trump pointed out that the island is vital for countering the increased influence of China and Russia in the Arctic, which falls under the US national interest. Previously, in 2019, he had suggested that the United States should have Greenland. However, Trump is not the first US president to suggest such an act. The idea was first floated during the 1860s under the presidency of Andrew Johnson.
As Dr Nanda Kishor MS, who heads the Department of Politics and International Studies, Pondicherry University, mentions, “Every small to big country has its importance in International politics; it just depends on time.” The time has come for Greenland, where 80 % of the landmass is covered with vast ice sheets. The Arctic is changing at an unusual rate. The melting of ice is opening up new economic opportunities and trade routes. Greenland, the world’s largest island, geographically located between the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans, is at the centre of this changing landscape. Once seen as a remote, frozen land, Greenland has now become a focal point of global interest due to its unexplored natural resources, emerging trade routes, and strategic military importance. Greenland finds itself at the heart of this evolving geopolitical contest because every nation wants to secure its piece of the hot cake in the Arctic.
Economic Opportunities and Natural Resources
Ice in Greenland is melting rapidly due to climate change. This may pose grave environmental challenges but would also open up new economic opportunities. One of the most significant economic prospects that are emerging from this thawing is the potential for new, shorter shipping and trade routes. The melting Arctic allows for navigation via the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route, potentially revolutionizing global trade by drastically cutting transport times between Asia, Europe, and North America. Any region that is on trade routes becomes crucial in international politics. Greenland’s geographic position along these routes makes it an important player in the future of Arctic trade.
Moreover, Greenland has vast mineral wealth. Beneath its icy terrain lie substantial deposits of oil, natural gas, gold, diamonds, zinc, and rare earth minerals. These resources are considered crucial for modern technologies such as mobile phones, EVs, wind turbines, and advanced military equipment. Global demand for these resources is soaring, positioning Greenland as a potential economic powerhouse in the coming decades. Extraction, however, is challenging because of Greenland’s harsh climate, lack of infrastructure, and concerns over environmental sustainability.
Greenland’s fisheries sector is another crucial pillar of its economy. Fishing is the primary livelihood for many Greenlanders and contributes significantly to the country’s GDP. The way climate change is affecting the marine ecosystem, it seems the role of Greenland in the global fish market will become potent in the coming years. Additionally, the island holds vast reserves of freshwater in its ice sheets, making it a potential supplier of one of the world’s most valuable natural resources.
Tourism is also becoming an economical option for Greenland, which has the potential to boost the economy. The environment, topography, and wildlife animals attract people to Greenland. However, a sustainable infrastructure is required for this growing tourism, which can not be constructed without a powerful nation’s help.
Geostrategic and Military Importance
Beyond its economic value, Greenland holds immense geostrategic importance. According to the changing geopolitical scenarios, the geostrategic position of a landmass has a greater impact on its position in International politics. Greenland, situated between North America and Europe, is crucial in Arctic security.
The US has long recognized this strategic advantage. It has established Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base) in northern Greenland in 1943. This base is key in the US ballistic missile early-warning system and space surveillance operations. It was used as a modern air base during the Cold War by the Air Force Space Command from 1982 to 2019, and in 2020, it transferred to the Space Force.
With the rise in geopolitical tensions, particularly between NATO and Russia, the strategic importance of Greenland has regained once again. The Arctic is fast becoming a theatre for military build-up, with Russia stepping up its Arctic military presence and China openly expressing interest in the region. The GIUK Gap (Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom), a Cold War-era chokepoint for monitoring submarine activity, remains an important region of military surveillance. The proximity of the island to the Arctic Ocean makes it a potential hub for future military operations, submarine deployments, and surveillance activities.
Due to the expansion of military and intelligence operations in Greenland, cooperation between Denmark and the US has improved. The Danish government, which maintains control over the foreign and defence policy of Greenland, has enhanced its defence capabilities within the Arctic region by upgrading its military funding and surveillance capabilities.
The Battle for Influence: A Geopolitical Contestation
Knowing the increased economic and military importance, Greenland has also become a place of geopolitical contestation. The US, China, Russia, and the European Union are all operating for influence in the region.
US and Greenland
The US has historically considered Greenland as a very important military location. In 2019, former US President Donald Trump revealed his interest in buying the island. Danish and Greenlandic officials have rejected this move by stating that it is their people’s property. Nonetheless, this idea highlighted the strategic importance Washington gives to Greenland. The US remains deeply concerned about Chinese investments and potential influence in Greenland, fearing that Beijing’s involvement could undermine American security interests in the Arctic. In 2016, for instance, a Hong Kong-based company showed an interest in acquiring a decommissioned Danish naval base, while in 2018, a Chinese state-owned company bid to extend and modernize the runways at Greenlandic airports. Copenhagen ultimately blocked both initiatives. In an effort to contain Chinese influence, the US has intensified diplomatic efforts with Greenland. It provides economic aid and deepens security cooperation.
In 2020, the US opened a consulate in Nuuk, Greenland’s capital city, to improve diplomatic relations and economic cooperation. The US also committed millions of dollars in infrastructure and resource development aid to Greenland to counter Chinese and Russian influence in the Arctic.
China’s Arctic Aspirations
China, though geographically distant from the Arctic, has declared itself a “near-Arctic state” and has sought to expand its presence in the region through its “Polar Silk Road” initiative. Beijing has made multiple attempts to invest in Greenland’s mining sector, particularly in rare earth minerals, but these efforts have faced significant pushback. The Greenlandic and Danish governments, under pressure from the US, have blocked key Chinese projects, including airport constructions and mining operations. Chinese companies have also been involved in various mineral exploration projects in Greenland. However, it seems that these companies lost interest or the government of Greenland ended the projects. The most popular example is a rare earth exploration project, Kvanefjeld, in which the Chinese company Shenghe Resources took the stake. That project has been put on hold due to environmental concerns, and there are no hopes for resumption in the coming years. At the same time, China is interested in Greenland’s resources and its potential role in the Arctic trade route. China has been ramping up its scientific and research activities in the Arctic region. They have beautifully used climate and environmental research as a rationale for establishing a long-term presence there. This step has raised anxiety among Western powers, especially the US, regarding Beijing’s larger strategic intentions in the Arctic.
Despite declaring itself to be “open for business”, however, Greenland has struggled to attract foreign investment. In this context, courting China has proved a successful strategy for Nuuk, as it has put pressure on Europe and the United States to offer their own investments to counter Chinese proposals. Since 2019, the US has reopened its consulate in Nuuk, collaborated with Greenland on mineral exploration and provided economic aid packages to the island.
Russia’s Arctic Militarization
Russia, which possesses the longest Arctic coastline, has significantly expanded its military infrastructure in the Arctic. With tensions rising following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO has increased its Arctic security posture. While Greenland itself has not been directly involved in conflicts, its role in Arctic security discussions has grown. Given its NATO association through the Kingdom of Denmark, Greenland plays a crucial role in the alliance’s Arctic strategy. Russia has invested heavily in Arctic military bases, nuclear-powered icebreakers, and submarine activity in the region, making Arctic security a growing priority for NATO allies, including Denmark and the US.
EU and Greenland
Greenland, though an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, remains closely associated with the European Union (EU). Although Greenland withdrew from the EU in 1985, it still receives funding from the EU for development projects. The EU has been keen to strengthen cooperation with the island, especially in climate research, sustainable development, and resource management.
The EU’s interest in Greenland is more geo-economic than geopolitics. Europe looks more interested in securing rare earth minerals in order to reduce its dependence on China for rare earth minerals. This has led European companies to increase investment in Greenland’s mining sector.
Climate Change and Environmental Risks
The melting of Greenland’s ice sheet is one of the most alarming consequences of climate change. If the ice sheet were to melt entirely, it could raise global sea levels by over 7 meters, posing a catastrophic threat to coastal regions worldwide. Additionally, the increased accessibility of Greenland’s resources raises concerns about environmental degradation and the impact on Indigenous communities that rely on traditional ways of life.
Greenland’s Path to Independence
Greenland has been moving towards greater autonomy from Denmark. Under the 2009 Greenland Self-Government Act, the island gained significant control over its domestic affairs, including resource management. The 2009 Greenland Self-Government Act stipulates that Greenland can stage a referendum on independence at any time, but there is a major impediment: economic dependence on Danish subsidies. Most people in Greenland favour eventual independence, but self-sufficiency in economics will have to be realized first. The recent increase in importance may bring required investment, trade, and commerce to the island. However, the US looks adamant about acquiring the island and may get it through a deal with Denmark.
Conclusion
Greenland is no more a remote landmass or an overlooked island but has suddenly become a center of attraction after Trump’s aspiration. The competition between global players is yet to come, but a trailer of it has started with Trump’s entry into the White House. Greenland’s future ultimately rests in the hands of its own people. How Greenland manages its resources, engages with global powers, and pursues its aspirations for self-determination will shape its destiny and the future of the island.
References:
https://kinacentrum.se/en/publications/china-already-left-so-what-is-trumps-greenland-gambit-about
https://english.stm.dk/media/10522/gl-selvstyrelov-uk.pdf
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-denmark-china-greenland-base-idUSKBN1782EE
https://arcticyearbook.com/images/yearbook/2018/China-and-the-Arctic/7_AY2018_Andersson.pdf
https://www.petersonschriever.spaceforce.mil/Pituffik-SB-Greenland
https://www.belfercenter.org/research-analysis/explainer-geopolitical-significance-greenland
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-18249474
