The stretch of south Caucasus has historically been revered with the status of strategic significance in the international geopolitical order due to its resource rich landscape and geographic location. This Eurasian region also distinguished as the trans Caucasus (Za Kavkazie), lies between the Caspian and the Black Sea that despite having a contagious geography lacks an inclusive corridor to integrate economic interdependence and regulate international transit routes in the strategic crossroad between Europe and Asia.
The peripheral states of south Caucasus and the region’s proximity to the global juggernauts has long swayed the political trajectory of the states that lie here, precisely Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Recently, a breakthrough in rapprochement has surfaced in the protracted course of peace among Armenia and its traditional adversary Azerbaijan. On the 10th of July, 2025, the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev shared a historic handshake with the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in the United Arab Emirates that marked their foremost bilateral meeting since their successful cooperation over the draft of the peace agreement that was concluded earlier in May, 2025.
This formal summit intended to resolve the core contention that has stalled the ratification of this peace treaty. However, the constructive atmosphere hardly managed to soothe the contention rather the latest peripheral skirmishes threatened to hamper the peace measures and reignite the conflict all over again.
A firm insistence of Baku revolves around the unresolved status of the Zangezur Corridor that impedes this peace process. This article tries to trace the contention over this proposed Zangezur corridor that has the potential to unleash a new power play in the region.
How does this Corridor help Azerbaijan?
The foundation of this transformative corridor can be traced back to the trilateral ceasefire agreement among Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia who played the role of a guarantor at the conclusion of the second Nagorno Karabakh war in 2020. Amid this negotiation, emerged a ceasefire statement that specifically in Clause 9 stipulated that all economic and transport corridors in the region shall be unblocked to guarantee a safe passage for the Azerbaijani mainland to its western exclave of Nakhchivan to ensure seamless movement of people, product and transit. Around half a million of Azerbaijanis reside in this exclave yet it remains separated by the Syunik strip of Armenia. This conceptual corridor would facilitate Azerbaijan with a route to its western exclave of Nakhchivan (the Autonomous Republic of Azerbaijan) that would restore its territorial integrity with mainland Azerbaijan. However, the current draft peace treaty omits any exclusive reference to this corridor and only connectivity commitments are mutually consented.
Armenia’s Skepticism
Armenia’s pessimism spurs from potential isolationism in the region as Azerbaijan firmly insists for extraterritorial jurisdiction over the stretch that would potentially jeopardise Armenia’s sole non Turkic border access with Iran in the south. Rather, Armenia categorically rejects any territorial concessions and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan asserts his ‘Alternative vision’ which is an extension of his “Crossroads of Peace” initiative (launched at the Tbilisi Silk Road Forum in October, 2023). This initiative envisions a regulated international transit route that is solely operated under the Armenian jurisdiction.
In the recent era, Baku’s pragmatic political clout in the south Caucasus has emerged prominent and has transformed Azerbaijan as a profound geopolitical actor in the region. It is imperative to note that this peace agreement is not essentially brokered mutually rather the predatory politics of Azerbaijan has efficiently managed to reinforce its autonomy over the breakaway region of Nagorno Karabakh while Armenia is coerced to comply in order to survive this unfavourable power order that favours Baku.
Armenia’s skepticism over the corridor stems from the potential geopolitical risk that can sever their sovereignty over the southern region of Syunik. This further risks losing access to its border with Iran that is essential to control the existing Iran- Armenia gas pipeline. Albeit, Armenia is also likely to benefit from this lucrative corridor yet the weight of the geopolitical risk is far greater than the economic incentive. At this point, the feeble footing of Armenia is detrimental in dictating terms hence the animosity simmers underneath as a novel horizon of power struggle emerges in the protracted course of antagonism among Yerevan and Baku.
Azerbaijan’s two fold benefits
Azerbaijan seeks to leverage two fold benefits from this potential corridor. Politically, it strives to secure a direct access with its exclave that would solidify its autonomy over Nakhchivan. Moreover, Baku has made substantial strides to transform Azerbaijan into a transit hub through integrated infrastructure of rail and freight networks. It also exhibits Baku’s efforts to economically diversify and leverage the lucrative landscape. Moreover, an effective rollout of this proposed corridor would bolster the transport corridors that already transits through the region, especially the East-West and North-South transport corridor.
Turkey’s Neo-Ottoman Aspirations
Recently, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan noted that the Zangezur corridor is not a mere geopolitical project but rather is a “Geoeconomic Revolution” for the region that would facilitate the transportation of “Turkish goods (that) will reach Central Asia and China faster through the Caspian Sea, and goods from Europe to China will also begin to pass through Türkiye”. He further noted its impact and opportunity for the wider West Asian nations including Iran and other central Asian nations as well. The proposed corridor has the potential to improve the logistical infrastructure which would efficiently facilitate international transit through this landscape. It is also an essential element of the Middle Corridor Initiative of China that Erdoğan noted as the “heart of the Middle Corridor” which connects China in the East to Europe in the West. It is also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) that crosses through Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan and Georgia into Turkey and further connecting to Europe. This stands as the shortest overland route to Europe connecting Asia through Central Asia. This transformative corridor has the potential to elevate the efficiency of the South Caucasus to seamlessly enable the access of the European market to the Central Asian states.
Azerbaijan along with Turkey remain two major beneficiaries of this proposed corridor. This initiative emboldens the Pan Turkic vision of President Erdogan, who seeks to steer the geopolitical vacuum in the south Caucasus strategically. Turkey seeks to consolidate its Turkic leadership and influence over the wider Eurasia. This corridor strengthens the Ottoman aspirations of Ankara to reinforce a Turkic sphere of influence in the region.
The Turkish Transport and Infrastructure Minister, Abdulkadir Oraloglu noted that this corridor would solidify Turkey’s practical ties with the Turkic world as it sits strategically at the heart of this Eurasian transit. He further asserts that this potential corridor could create a continuous trade route from Beijing to London as Ankara seeks to leverage the favourable geographic pivot over this strategic conduit that connects Europe to the East. Moreover, this corridor enables Turkey to efficiently access Azerbaijan’s hydrocarbon reserves as it seeks to satiate the European energy demands which seamlessly aligns with its grand national plan as well i.e. to transform Turkey as a major hub of hydrocarbons.
Russian Interests
Moscow’s stance over this corridor remains cautiously calculated. Russia is keen to maneuver its nuanced geopolitical interests in the region as this potential corridor posits a gateway for Russia to reintegrate itself with the regional transit and realign its chords with peripheral states, specifically, Turkey that is keen to penetrate its tentacles in this strategic transit zone. The Kremlin’s proactive approach has waned over the decades and precisely since its exhaustive engagement in the peripheral conflicts has overwhelmed its strategic far-sightedness.
Russia recognises the inevitable influence of Turkic influence yet the economic incentive of this Eurasian trade network somewhat outweighs the strategic risks. The Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has exhibited optimism towards Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan corridor plan. This support is severely criticized by Iran that offers unrestricted access via the Zangazur would impede Armenian sovereignty over the region.
Iran’s Fear
Tehran remains the sole hardcore critic of the Zangezur plan, beside Armenia, as it perceives the corridors a mere means of Turkish influence in its backyard. An Iranian- American Political Scientist, Nader Entessar aptly labels Iran’s backfoot in its own backyard as “a day late and a dollar short” who lacks both appeal and assertiveness at this point. Iran’s former Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi has underscored the risks this corridor poses in his article titled “Conspiracy to Create NATO’s Turan Corridor” where he asserts that it reeks of Turkic- Western meddling in the immediate periphery.
It also fears a possible isolation as this corridor has the potential to sever its access to Armenia that is essential part of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) that connects Russia and Central Asia through Caucasus. Moreover, to counterbalance the Azerbaijani Turkish influence Iran proposed an alternative project i.e. the Aras corridor which proposes to bridge Azerbaijan to its exclave via the Aras valley which would extend from the existing Horadiz-Agbend railway link.
Additionally, the collective interest of Central Asian states has garnered support for this proposed Zangezur corridor that seamlessly integrates the Middle corridor. Their solidarity stems from the lucrative economic opportunity it provides for this typical landlocked landscape and especially Uzbekistan who perceives this corridor vital in building a strategic transit through this region.
Isolating Iran
In the recent scenario, with the retreating influence of Russia over the south Caucasus, Azerbaijan along with Turkey are advancing to maneuver their influence over this vacuum. More recently, this power vacuum has enticed the United States as well. The United States has proposed the initiative to take over the jurisdiction over this potential Zangezur corridor that remains a source of antagonism among Yerevan and Baku. President Trump is keen to tactically encircle the pariah state of Iran and essentially to counter any further Russian influence over the south Caucasus.
Conclusion
As of yet, Armenia remains assertive to retain sole sovereignty over the part of the corridor that cuts through its Syunik province. It categorically rejects the concept of a Corridor through its southern province and advocates for a Crossroad that shall be solely under Armenian jurisdiction. Much pessimism has again shrouded the peace initiative as this diplomatic thaw still lacks clarity and it is imperative to underscore that this delayed diplomacy could possibly derail the progress altogether. At this hour, only a cautious tread can set this pragmatic peace trail towards success.
