The Dialectics

Commentary West Asia

Erdogan, Imamoglu, and the Changing Political Landscape of Turkey

Protests Against President Erdoğan in Turkey? Why?

On March 19, protests erupted in Türkiye following the arrest of “Ekrem Imamoglu”, mayor of Istanbul. With arrests, Turkish police have arrested 1,100 people who took part in protests in support of Imamoglu. Reports say police have used pepper spray and water cannons against the protestors, and the regime has blocked about 700 of “X” accounts on social media. With the following, President Eradgon said, “Would not allow public order to be damaged and will not give in to vandalism or street terrorism.” This protest was the largest protest since the Gezi Park protest of 2013.

Why the Protests, and Why Was the Mayor Arrested?

First, Imamoglu was nominated as the Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate for the presidential elections in 2028. Party members mentioned that about 15 million people voted for Imamoglu with an overwhelming majority. This majority comes from the mayor’s hometown and part of the coastal Black Sea region, where Erdoğan has a big political support. This emerging political popularity and grassroots support for Imamoglu brought a fever to Erdoğan’s political career. Imprisonment was widely understood as a political move to eliminate from the presidential contest. So the anti-democratic move brought people to protest.

Second, the mayor was arrested on charges of bribery and corruption alongside support for terrorism. The terrorism charge was “an agreement made with pro-Kurdistan groups and party (PKK), where Ankara declared it a terrorist group. Prosecutors allege that Imamoglu took part in the “Urban Consensus” initiative with pro-Kurdistan groups before the local elections.

Third, alongside the arrest, a few protestors said that it was bigger than Imamoglu’s arrest. People gathered for wider struggles and concerns, including democracy and economic backsliding, calls for changes in the healthcare and education systems, and the increasingly autocratic rule of Erdoğan.

Who is Imamoglu?

Imamoglu was born in Akçabat, on the Black Sea coast. Had a bachelor’s in business administration and a master’s in human resource management. In 2010, the mayor managed to defeat the 25-year-long dominance of President Erdoğan’s AKP and its allies in Istanbul in local elections, giving a big boost to his political career. In 2019, Imamoglu was elected as a mayor, which gave a setback for the President Justice and Development Party, but later, election authorities annulled his victory by saying it had irregularities in the election. With re-election, once again, Imamoglu contested and won by a larger margin than previously, ending 25 years of the conservative party’s hold on Istanbul.

By 2024, he solidified his position and defeated Murat Kurum, backed by President Erdoğan, by nearly 10 percentage points. With the rising fame, Imamoglu was a Turkish presidential hopeful for the 2028 elections. After the CHP party named him as a candidate, Imamoglu was arrested

How does arrest impact Türkiye?

First, with the arrest of Imamoglu, a wide range of protests have been visible, especially in Istanbul. Istanbul is the largest city, and it was a city when Erdoğan was a mayor. The political journey from mayor to President Eradgon started in Istanbul. Alongside, once he commented, “Whoever wins Istanbul, wins Turkey,” showing the increase in hostility towards the popularity of Erdoğan. In addition to the polls calling for the next election on choosing a president, about 54% of people chose Imamoglu over Erdoğan; about 39% was his number. This shows a big blow to the president’s upcoming elections and impacts his popularity.

Second, opposition has been revived after the arrest. The opposition party CHP has been under effective leadership and has new strategies to topple the ruling government.Earlier to this, former opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu effectively failed in drawing national attention.In 2023, Kilicdaroglu ran for presidential elections, despite having widespread criticism. He was trailed by Erdoğan in the most important presidential election. The opposition became stronger after Imamoglu won the mayoral election and named him as a presidential candidate; by the arrest, the opposition got widespread support from the people, and this restored hope in the Turkish people to have a new presidential candidate after more than a decade.

Third, the arrest has raised big concerns about Türkiye’s democracy and rule of law and has brought down the international reputation and pointed out the democratic values of Türkiye.

Fourth, with arrests and protests, Turkey faced economic backsliding. In the first 3 days of protests, Türkiye’s central bank spent $26 billion from its reserves to maintain its currency; the currency was falling against the dollar. Banks lost 20% of their value, and the Turkish stock market has hit rock bottom.

Conclusion

Subjectively, the arrest has been a major point in Türkiye’s politics; citizens need a new role in the presidential post, and they aren’t favouring the decades of presidential rule of Erdoğan. The presidential election of 2028 seems to be a big blow to Erdogan and might lead to the toppling of Erdogan. Secondly, young people, about 70% to 80% of people as per data, seek to move abroad for employment, and studies show dissatisfaction in Erdogan. Subjective to effective leadership, democracy, and the economy should be revived Majorly, will President Erdoğan have a brighter political career.

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