The Republic of Tajikistan is slowly traversing a significant tectonic shift. It strategically sits at the conduit that connects Central, Eastern and South Asia and is emerging as a potential theater among two asymmetric players in the region. While there are pronounced footprints of Beijing across the terrain, in the crannies there is brewing an extremist dissent against the draconian regime of President Emamoli Rahmon who exercises repressive tactics to uphold his authoritarian reign in Dushanbe. He is keen to deter undercurrents of militant Islamism in Tajikistan most notably the Islamic State of the Khorasan Province or more commonly noted as the ISIS-K who seek to alter the secular political fabric of Dushanbe.
This equation hints at an uncommon ideological confrontation among the calibrated Chinese Communism and Islamic extremism. These converging strands have profound consequences for the country. Thus, this speculative article underscores the nexus of Chinese capital and the coercive control and its detrimental effects on Dushanbe.
Internal Repression
Today, Tajikistan is a typical epitome of ‘Nepotistic kleptocracy’. President Rahmon has ruled the country since 1992, following the collapse of the Soviet Union and has consolidated much of his power through political coercion and centralized leadership. His rule showcases a staunch stance against the extremist elements (following the conclusion of the Tajik Civil War) and as a souvenir from the Soviet past, secular ideals are intricately weaved in his tactics.
Over the decades, he has articulated the title of ‘Leader of the Nation’ for himself that bestows him with lifetime immunity and power to propose policies beyond his Presidential term. Hence, his reign has fused these contradictory ideals of secularism with authoritarianism to crack down any dissent against his party i.e. the People’s Democratic Party of Tajikistan (PDPT) and has portrayed Islamic extremism as the convenient scapegoat to bolster his punitive regime.
Moreover, he has enacted severe stipulations that constrain personal freedom of the Tajik populace amid soaring unemployment and other economic hardships. The country continues to grapple as the poorest economy in the whole of Central Asia and the Russian remittances remain the major share of the country’s GDP.
Meanwhile, in order to eliminate radical and extremist trends in Tajikistan, Rahmon has taken stern measures on clothing and grooming to curb Islamization. Under this disguise to deter extremist elements he has conveniently overlooked the grievances of the populace. In exchange, their perils have fostered pessimistic perception towards Rahmon and has inevitably sowed seeds of defiance against his authoritarian regime.
Rise of Resentment
Subsequently, this scenario has curated a fertile soil to float extremist ideals in Tajikistan. While they sympathise with the perils of the Tajik people, simultaneously they persuade them to carry out comprehensive overhaul against the tyranny of Rahmon. This rhetoric intensified following the outlaw of the opposition Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) in 2015 who ideally aimed to inculcate Islamic values while upholding democratic ideals. Albeit, there has been a relatively subtle essence of extremism in the country but the terrain has remained a hotbed for ISIS K recruitment in the recent past. Plus their proximity (in the south) with the cradle of terrorism exacerbates their vulnerability to extremism especially after the resurgence of the Taliban rule in August, 2021.
External Influence
In order to counter radical recruitment and jihadi extremism, Rahmon has long relied on foreign support. Formerly, it was Moscow who meddled in the terrain to counter any potential extremist threat as it hosts several strategic bases of Russia. Further, facilitating the regime of Rahmon, Russia tagged the IRPT as a terrorist organisation, however, its recent retreat following its engagement with Ukraine since 2022 has inevitably paved a path for the Chinese to permeate in the region. In general, the region is central to China ‘s Belt and Road Initiative and extremism poses a significant threat to this initiative.
While Tajikistan remains strategically significant to Chinese foreign policy, it is their shared sense of extremist threat that has solidified this association. Thus, besides the economic corridor Chinese interference is invariably linked with their security calculus in the region as the borders are certainly not impermeable. Beijing’s belligerence towards the Uyghur muslims in the northwestern province of Xinjiang is perceived with the similar lens of repression and China as a mere corroborator of the repressive regime by the extremist entities especially ISIS K. As China senses a sheer threat from the diverse heterogeneity it seeks stability through severe Sinicization. Another key aspect is the nature of extremist entities, that is essentially transnational in nature, posits Tajikistan as a strategic buffer to tackle potential threats. Thus, in order to confront the shared threats of Islamic extremism, China supports the authoritarian regime in Tajikistan.
Essentially, it is Beijing’s investments that facilitates Rahmon’s coercive control over extremism. In his endeavor to ensure his foothold, Rahmon has leased out several sovereign Tajik territories to China. This Chinese foothold over the terrain under the guise of ‘developmental model’ has not merely gobbled much of Dushanbe’s sovereignty but has simultaneously sunk the state in Chinese debt. While dismissing the perils of his populace he heavily relies on the Chinese capital that paves the path for predatory China that poses itself as a key collaborator of the Authoritarian Tajikistan with its Totalitarian influence.
An Ideological Collision
Tajikistan is emerging as an intersection of contrasting ideologies and these contradictory currents pose a precarious challenge for the country. While Islamic extremism is simmering in crannies, there is a strong command of Communist currents in the urban cosmopolitan neighborhoods. In essence, the divergent dynamics of extremism and communism pose a significant threat for Tajikistan
The roots of Islamic extremism majorly erupted out of social exclusion, repression and economic discontent. These features facilitated a fertile ground for radicalisation and recruitment. Extremist entities especially ISIS K capitalizes on these perils to exploit the vulnerabilities in order to leverage their recruitment drive in the wider Central Asian region. They influence their perception towards extremist ideology and beliefs. Furthermore, Islamic extremism does not merely challenge the secular structure of the state but rather portrays any foreign ideological currents as equally corrupt and resist their penetration. The ideological narrative of extremism thrives on repression and explicitly resist collusion of the Communist state with the authoritarian regime of Rahmon.
Whilst the region remains engulfed in terror of extremism, in the recent years, Tajikistan has not merely imported the ‘Developmental initiative’ of China through BRI; but has rather embraced Communist currents that politically benefit the repressive regime of Rahmon. Essentially, Communism prioritizes states’ strong command over every aspect of life and especially ‘socialism with Chinese characteristics’ only bolsters centralised consolidation of state authority.
More importantly, the strand of religion remains the most distinguishing factor among these two distinct ideologies. The currents of extremism survive on the identity of Islam while communism tends to keep the dogma of religion at doorstep. Another interesting distinction is their mode of operation in the terrain. While the former remains a relatively bottom up phenomenon, the latter is more of a top down approach that seeps through the state apparatus. Therefore divergent dynamics can create a potential debacle for Dushanbe.
Conclusion
Currently, Rahmon lacks a comprehensive strategy to address the increasing crisis in his country. Hence, he is stepping towards the shadow of predatory China in order to secure his repressive regime over the terrain. And while Rahmon’s true intention is to obscure any potential opposition in the Tajik society has actually pushed the Tajik populace to brace the alternative ideology of extremism more rigorously. Thus, there is simmering an ideological tussle that can shake the tapestry of Tajikistan and disrupt the tranquility of the terrain.
