BACKGROUND:
Since the February 2021 coup, there has been widespread resistance and unrest in Myanmar resulting in brutal crackdown and cycle of violence, orchestrated by the Military Junta. The clashes between Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) and the Tatmadaw too have intensified significantly. Numerous EAOs, which have long sought greater autonomy, have either renewed hostilities or intensified existing conflicts against the Tatmadaw. Groups like the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Karen National Union (KNU), and the Arakan Army (AA) have launched offensives, resulting in heavy casualties and displacement of civilians.
The National Unity Government (NUG) of Myanmar, formed in response to the 2021 military coup, represents the ousted civilian government and aims to restore democracy. The NUG has garnered support from various Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs), particularly the Brotherhood Alliance, which includes the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), to weed out the Junta.
KALADAN PROJECT – CURRENT STATUS :
The Kaladan Project once again is in news in India following the Arakan Army’s (AA) capture of Palette township in Chin state of Myanmar in the North Western region, near Mizoram border.
The Kaladan Project is an ambitious collaborative infrastructure initiative between India and Myanmar aimed at enhancing regional connectivity. It involves developing a multi-modal transport system that includes a sea route from India’s eastern port of Kolkata to Myanmar’s Sittwe port, a river transport route along the Kaladan River from Sittwe to Paletwa in Myanmar, and a road network from Paletwa to India’s northeastern state of Mizoram. This project is intended to boost trade, economic development, and strategic ties between the two countries while providing an alternative route for India’s northeastern states to access the Bay of Bengal.
As per the reports, in April 2023, the Indian side of the road connecting border town Zorinpui in Mizoram with Paletwe in Myanmar was almost complete. Subsequently, on May 9, 2024, the Kolkata-Sittwe part of the Kaladan Project was declared operational when the union ports, shipping and waterways minister, Sarbananda Sonowal virtually received the first Indian cargo ship sailing from Kolkata Port to Sittwe Port in Rakhine State of Myanmar.
The Arakan Army’s Advance
In October 2023, the Brotherhood Alliance began offenses under ‘operation 1027’, and by January 2024 several strategic townships bordering India, Bangladesh, China and Thailand were under its control.
In the North West, the Arakan Army has made significant gains capturing 180 military camps and taken full control of 17 townships in Rakhine state, following a three month long brutal clash with Myanmar Military (Source: Radio Free Asia).
Ever since the Arakan army was founded in 2009, it has only grown in strength, by May 2024, the AA had 40000 military personnels at its disposal (the new humanitarian,29 may, 2024) with more than 15000 alone stationed and operating in north and north western states of Rakhine and Chin. In its early years, the AA was trained by the Kachin Independence Army, which is believed to have trained the insurgents from northeastern India in the 1980s.
AA is part of the Federal Political Negotiations and Consultative Committee (FPNCC) , an alliance of seven major Ethnic Armed Organisation (EAOs), formed in 2017 as a negotiating body with the Government headed by Military Junta. FPNCC is spearheaded by United Wa State Army (UWSA), Myanmar’s largest and most powerful Ethnic Armed Group which administers the Autonomous Wa State, is a strong ally of China. Currently, FPNCC is the largest negotiating body of EAOs in Myanmar recognised by China as the agency to negotiate with the government.
The China Factor
Several reports have emerged in recent times indicating the Arakan Army receiving substantial support, both financially and militarily from china. AA targeting of India backed projects and avoiding interfering in Chinese infrastructures in the region is often cited as a proof of AA’s close association with China. In early 2019, in a retaliatory move to the joint operation by India and Myanmar Military to chase away AA obstructing the project, the AA abducted five Indians working on kaladan site leading to death of one, .
China and India are neck to neck in funding developmental projects in the north western region of Myanmar, and what makes India worry is China increasingly backing EAOs and AA in particular in taking control of border areas. Therefore, reports of January 15 AA taking over the Paletwa, a township on the northern end of the Kaladan river connecting Sittwe Port, which forms the crucial component of the Kaladan Project linking northeastern states of india with the Kolkata port and thereby avoiding the over reliance on the Siliguri Corridor, holds significance.
Even though it is unexpected of a democratic nation, the Indian government has backed Military Junta for its strategic interests, but Junta losing ground against EAOs in Rakhine region does not augur well for India.
Completion of Kaladan Project has certainly been on top of the agenda for India. This project strengthens India’s presence in Myanmar and enhances strategic ties with SouthEast Asia. It counters China’s growing influence in the region, thereby balancing power dynamics. By fostering economic development and connectivity, the project can stabilise the insurgency-prone northeastern states. And thus contributing to overall regional stability.
