The recent political upheaval in Bangladesh, characterised by Sheikh Hasina’s removal from power and establishment of an interim government, presents significant security, political, and social challenges for India. This article examines the evolving India-Bangladesh dynamic, focusing on the rise of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), upcoming elections, and key implications for India’s strategic interests.
Shared History
The legacy of colonialism, combined with deep religious and ethnic linkages and divides, porous borders and tensions over resource-sharing continues to shape the dynamics of South Asian relations. The bilateral engagements and global relations of India and Bangladesh are often influenced by their domestic politics.
India and Bangladesh share deep historical, cultural, and linguistic ties rooted in their shared heritage from the Bengal region. They were both part of British India, with Bengal serving as the capital and the first major region conquered by the British, until 1911. Rabindranath Tagore, the renowned Bengali polymath, composed the national anthems of both India and Bangladesh. The foundation for modern Bangladesh emerged with the 1905 partition of Bengal, later reversed in 1911, though Bengal lost prominence when the capital moved to Delhi. During the partition of British India in 1947, the Bengal region was divided due to religious unconformities, and East Bengal was transferred under the governance of Pakistan and West Bengal under the dominion of India. Renamed East Pakistan, it gained independence as Bangladesh in 1971 following the Bangladesh Liberation War, during which India played a crucial role.
Early India-Bangladesh relations were cordial under Indira Gandhi and Sheikh Mujibur Rahman but deteriorated after Mujib’s assassination in 1975. The border challenges continued while General Ziaur Rahman’s BNP-led government maintained limited economic ties with India. Under General Ershad, relations stagnated despite SAARC’s formation. His declaration of Islam as the state religion in 1988 deepened internal divisions. Democratic transitions from 1991 saw political dominance oscillating between BNP’s Khaleda Zia and Awami League’s Sheikh Hasina, shaping contemporary Bangladesh-India ties.
Current Political Crisis
Bangladesh’s political landscape underwent a seismic shift after Sheikh Hasina’s upheaval. Allegations of authoritarianism, corruption, and economic mismanagement tarnished her administration. According to a report by the Dhaka Tribune, Hasina is accused in over 100 cases and faces several charges on accounts of murder, mass killing and crimes against humanity over killings during the July uprising. Several of Hasina’s close aides, including members of her party, the Awami League had been implicated in numerous criminal cases in Bangladesh ranging from corruption, murders, genocide, abductions and crimes against humanity. While her Awami League fostered strong ties with India, her downfall raises questions about the sustainability of this partnership.
During his Victory Day speech on December 16, Muhammad Yunus hinted that the next general elections might take place by early 2026. As the political landscape evolves, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) appears to emerge as a strong contender for the upcoming election.
Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has expressed dissatisfaction with India’s decision to host Sheikh Hasina after she fled Bangladesh, emphasizing that India must act in a way that promotes mutual cooperation and avoid supporting Bangladesh’s adversaries. During Khaleda Zia’s tenure as Prime Minister (1991–1996, 2001–2006), relations with India were strained as her BNP-led government pursued a nationalist agenda, often accompanied by anti-India rhetoric. The BNP’s alliance with Islamist parties, including Jamaat-e-Islami – known for its violent history against minorities and connections to over 125 Islamic militant groups in Bangladesh further complicated bilateral relations.
The Triangular Tension
Campaigns like “India Out” focused on limiting Indian influence while strengthening ties with China, a stance reflected in the BNP’s 19-point manifesto, which closely aligns with China’s political agenda. China, historically opposed to Bangladesh’s independence in 1971, later developed strong military relations with Bangladesh, supplying 72% of its defense equipment. Following Sheikh Hasina’s ousting, China swiftly engaged with Bangladesh’s interim government, enhancing its “Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership.” China’s influence extends through defense ties, economic cooperation, and strategic positioning.
The situation intensifies the already fragile relationship between India and Bangladesh, exacerbated by the ongoing geopolitical rivalry between India and China. China’s continuous attempts to claim Indian territories have fueled rising tensions in the region. As India faces these territorial disputes with China, the involvement of Bangladesh in this complex dynamic only adds to the uncertainty. This triangular tension between India, China, and Bangladesh creates a volatile environment that could trigger further confrontations, not only at the diplomatic level but also in terms of security implications for the entire South Asian region.
Key Issues in India-Bangladesh Relations
India-Bangladesh relations are marked by various problems that have strained their partnership and created periods of tension. These issues continue to shape and influence the dynamics between the two nations.
- Rise of Islamic Fundamentalism
India has already started witnessing the effects of Islamic extremism in Bangladesh. The Assam STF arrested Mohammad Saad Radi, alias Mohammad Shab Sheikh, a cadre of the Ansarullah Bangla Team (Militant organisation in Bangladesh) on December 17 and 18, under the aegis of Operation Praghat. The ABT leadership entrusted him with recruiting Muslim youth, indoctrinating them, and establishing sleeper cells across the country to orchestrate subversive activities in India, including terrorism, rioting, and violent civil unrest. The growth of Islamic fundamentalism in Bangladesh poses a dual threat: destabilising its internal security and fuelling cross-border tensions with India. Extremist elements have gained ground in recent years, challenging Bangladesh’s secular foundations and threatening regional stability. - Geopolitical Influences
Under Sheikh Hasina, India had secured a land transit corridor to its North Eastern Region (NER), significantly enhancing rail connectivity and transhipment capabilities. This route holds strategic importance as a potential alternative during a military standoff with China that could compromise the Siliguri Corridor. However, under the new interim government, these agreements face potential revision or cancellation due to their unpopularity and perception as infringements on Bangladesh’s sovereignty. Halting these initiatives would represent a strategic setback for New Delhi and a potential geopolitical win for China. For India, countering this influence while maintaining goodwill with Bangladesh remains a balancing act. - Safeguarding Hindu Minorities
Since the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on August 5, 2024, Bangladesh has witnessed a surge in violence, including attacks targeting the Hindu minority community. Reports indicate that in the immediate aftermath, there were at least 200 attacks against Hindus and other religious minorities across 52 districts. The Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council reported over 2,000 incidents of communal violence between August 4 and August 20, resulting in 9 deaths and numerous attacks on places of worship. These incidents highlight the ongoing challenges faced by religious minorities in the country. Communal violence against Hindu minorities in Bangladesh has been a recurring concern that can strain diplomatic ties if left unaddressed. India, as a neighbouring secular democracy, faces growing pressure to act as a guarantor of minority rights. - Economic and Trade Relations
India and Bangladesh enjoy strong economic ties, with key collaborations in energy, infrastructure, and trade. Projects like the Katihar-Parbatipur-Bornagar electricity line and Rooppur Nuclear Plant address Bangladesh’s energy needs. India’s $8 billion in Lines of Credit grants supported the infrastructure development of the Akhaura-Agartala rail link and the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline. The 2023 operationalization of the Chittagong and Mongla Ports Agreement enhances connectivity, reducing costs and transit times for Indian cargo. With $14.22 billion in trade turnover in FY23, Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner in the subcontinent. However, political instability, with the BNP criticizing agreements made under the Hasina government, risks derailing these advancements, underscoring the need for sustained political engagement. - Border and Refugee Crisis
While mechanisms such as DG-level talks and joint inspections foster cooperation on border security and combating illicit activities, tensions remain, as seen in incidents like the Border Guards Bangladesh (BGB) stopping Indian Border Security Force (BSF) personnel from building a cattle fence. The porous border is exploited by forces inimical to India’s security for drug trafficking, arms smuggling, and human trafficking, with the killings along the border leading to high casualties on the Bangladeshi side. On the refugee front, the Rohingya crisis poses a significant security hurdle for India, with over 40,000 Rohingya refugees estimated to be in the country. India’s lack of a consistent refugee policy complicates the situation further, as deteriorating conditions in Bangladeshi camps have driven many to seek refuge in India.
The Way Forward
Strengthening India-Bangladesh relations requires building mutual respect and understanding, addressing shared challenges, and building long-term partnerships. India should take a pragmatic approach by focusing on sustainable engagement across the political spectrum rather than aligning with specific factions. Diplomatic initiatives, development projects, and people-to-people exchanges will be key to sustaining goodwill and protecting its interests. For Bangladesh, addressing internal challenges such as extremism, ensuring minority rights, and safeguarding its secular identity are essential for stability. Political leaders must prioritize national interests over factional rivalries to restore public trust. Collaborative efforts in economic partnerships, cultural exchanges, and regional connectivity projects can serve as strong foundations, enabling both nations to navigate the future together.
