Although one would expect peace in the region when South Sudan declared independence in 2011, the reality was that conflict broke out in the region almost immediately post-independence. In order to understand why conflict broke out we need to take various aspects into consideration. In research conducted by Marina Ottaway and Mai El-Sadany they talk about four types of conflicts that affect both the regions today
First is the North-South control over oil, since oil is the major source of income for Sudan, during the partition Sudan lost more than 70% of its oil to South Sudan since most of the oil rich areas are located in the Southern region. At the same time, all oil that is produced in the Southern region can only be exported through the port of Sudan located in the North which is the terminal of the country’s only pipeline.
The second is the attempts to control territories along the border between the North and South. Where South Sudan pushed its army into the Northern territory while the North bombed southern villages along the border. The conflict also revolves around the region of Abyei which both sides claim to be a part of their territory as this region is also rich in oil. The South Kordofan and the Blue Nile states are another example where geographically both the regions belong to the North but the identity of the inhabitants belong with that of the South since many even took part in the SPLM/A movements.
Third is that the Authority of the Juba government is contested while inexperienced and powerless government officials are unable to impose bureaucratic order. The South Sudanese opposition was never well unified, a diverse population that is spread over a larger territory which is divided by poor communications makes it difficult for the South to truly develop a common identity except in opposition to the North. The Political and Tribal divisions have distracted the country’s state building efforts and instead plunged it into internal turmoil adding to the problem was the renewed fighting with the North. Much of the conflict is based on age old problems which have historically led to clashes such as access to land, water and pasture, which is the basic means of livelihood for the rural population. At the same time the easily available loose arms add on to the instability in the region. The Dinka ethnic group of South Sudan supported Salva Kiir while the Nuer community supported Reik Machar who were the heads of the two opposing forces of South Sudan. After a long civil war, peace agreement was signed between the two opposing forces in 2015 which failed, ultimately leading to the final ceasefire and power sharing agreement in August 2018 which led to the formation of the Unity Government in 2020.Fourth is that the political system of the North has worn out and is dominated by old patriarchal notion of men in the government, opposition and the military as well. As can be seen that in 2013 Bashir granted the Janjaweed militia (Read previous essay for context) official status by renaming them Rapid Support Forces. This is very significant as by 2018 Bashir started facing a lot of opposition due to the economic turmoil of the country, where two third of the GDP was allocated to security sector while millions suffered in hunger. Thus, the very Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, which were a part of Bashir’s once ‘coup proofing’ ousted him in 2019. A new PM was installed Abdolla Hamdok but was again overthrown by Hemedti and Burhan. Where Hemedti led the RSF and Burhan led the SAF. Today the fighting between the two continues even after various rounds of negotiations in 2022, where the key disagreement of the negotiations was that RSF was to be absorbed into SAF for which Burhan proposed a two-year timeline while Hemedti proposed a 10-year time.
