The once “Paris of the Middle East” is now engulfed in an endless political and humanitarian crisis. The cause of the instability dates back to the state’s independence in 1943. Lebanon is one of the worst-affected countries facing an economic downturn for decades, eroding human rights with more than 70 percent of the population living in poverty. The state was pushed into such crippling conditions within several decades driven by multiple factors. This article strives to help readers understand the sectarian roots of Lebanon’s politics and how it has resulted into a civil war and thereby addressing the post-civil war alterations that eventually led to Hezbollah’s rise to power.
Lebanon’s Original Power arrangement
Lebanon is a cosmopolitan country with Maronite Christians, a large population of Sunni Muslims, and Shia Muslims. Lebanese politics has a secular and sectarian power structure accompanied by persistent foreign interference. The then political structure of Lebanon was the result of the National Pact, 1943 on the basis which the government would have a sectarian representation where the Lebanese President would always be a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim, and the Shia Muslim would always occupy the position of the speaker of the National Assembly. The representation of Maronite Christians and Muslims in the Parliament was 6:5, favoring the former. The “secular” construct of the government soon exposed the flaws. This further divided the gap between the sects that later emerged as one of the causes of the civil war. The outcome of this 15 year civil war was the establishment of the Lebanese Second Republic.
Lebanese Civil War and the New Political System
The civil war of 1975 was fought not just on the communal grounds between the Maronite Christians and Muslims but also due to the influx of Palestinians in Lebanon due to the Arab- Israeli war, Arab Nationalism, and the Cold War. The domestic condition worsened with the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 and it was during this time that Hezbollah, designated by the US as a terrorist group, was formed by Iran. The 15-year civil war ended in 1990 with the signing of the Taif Agreement in Saudi Arabia in 1989 which ensured equal representation of Christians and Muslims in the Parliament. (From the earlier 6:5 to 50-50). The agreement restructured the power sharing formula by amending the constitution, where the powers of the Maronite President were curtailed and were vested upon the Council of Ministers headed by Sunni Prime Minister.
The agreement set forth the withdrawal of Israeli occupation of the south of Lebanon. With the ratification of the Taif accord, Rene Maowad became the President. With over a couple of weeks in office, Maowad was assassinated and Elias Hrawi was elected as the new President. The Lebanese Second Republic was established at the end of the 15-year civil war bringing the country to the carnage with destruction of infrastructure and property. It was during this time, that Hezbollah started participating in state politics and the other militant groups were devoid of arms. Rafic Hariri remained the Prime Minister from 1992-1998 and 2000-2004. After his assassination in 2005, Fouad Siniora held the office of PM from 2005-2008 followed by Saad Hariri from 2009-11 and again in 2016-2020. The country has been in political paralysis since the resignation of Hassan Diab till Najib Mikati stepped in as the next Prime Minister in 2021. The president’s seat remains vacant in 2024 after Michael Aoun’s tenure ended in 2022. This power vacuum isn’t the first time, the year 2023 marked the 12th time that the Parliament could not nominate a person as the country’s next President.
The cosmopolitan state is now in a state of massacre. The turmoil in the state is not only the result of an unstable government and domestic political vacuum but also of the influence and presence of the neighboring states of Syria, Iran, and Israel, and the involvement of PLO. The country is a buffer state of violence, affected by the Syrian Civil War, Israel’s invasion in 2006, and even in 2024, Iran’s presence due to its political alliance with Hezbollah. These external forces and the failed government have exploited the country’s economy, infrastructure, and democratic values. In fact, the external Influence in the region is worth to be studied and told as a separate story.
The Shiite Insecurity and Iran’s Opportunity
Hezbollah, a Shiite militant group, is backed by Iran and has been designated as a terrorist organization by the West. To date, it occupies an influential position in the politics of Lebanon. The group is also considered a “state within a state”. It was formed amidst the civil war, with the aspiration to annihilate the state of Israel, and resist the presence of Western power in the land. The birth of the grouping was also the result of the long-felt marginalization of the Shia groups in the country. Hezbollah was the only militia group allowed to be armed after the civil war, and today, it is the most influential and powerful political organization in Lebanon. The group participated in the national election in 1992 winning eight seats, brought out its manifesto in 1985, and won 13 seats in 2009 and 2018. The group has its strongest presence in the Shia-majority areas of Southern Lebanon and Bekka Valley. The grouping had joined mainstream politics in 2009, holding cabinet positions from mid-2000.
Role in Mainstream Politics
At present, Hezbollah has more power than the state government with the former having a larger and stronger armed force than the state. Security analyst and ex-Israeli general Assaf Orion asserted that Hezbollah possessed huge reserves of an arsenal of artillery which is larger than a state army. A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in 2018 stated that Hezbollah was the most powerful non state actor with the strongest military capability. It receives heavy funding and backing from foreign actors like Iran, Russia, and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad regime. The organization has a power structure consisting of the Shura Council and five Councils- Parliamentary, Executive, Judicial, Political, and Jihad with Hassan Nasrallah as the Secretary-General.
But the group’s involvement in the Israel-Hamas war has left the country in a state of utter devastation. Israel’s operation mainly targets the heads and leaders of the resistant groups to weaken the groups working, creating a power vacuum during the war. With the recent elimination of Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, Naim Qaseem was made the new leader on 29th October. Given that he is now the Israel Defence Forces’ next target, the most frequently asked question is how long his term will endure. With this, the seat of President is also left vacant from 2022 as the Parliament could not nominate a member for the position. The compounding impact of the political vacuum and a lack of strong and permanent leadership and engagement in the ongoing Israel-Hamas crisis has left a country at its gravest days.
Lebanon’s Current Domestic Crisis
The country with a paralyzed government faces high levels of acute food insecurity, humanitarian crisis, poverty, and rising inflation pushing the country toward catastrophic collapse. According to the Human Rights Watch group, Lebanon has entered its fourth year of a severe economic crisis that has severely impacted human rights and forced more than 80% of the country’s people into poverty.
A strong formidable, complete government, with a strong leader who can engage with Israel diplomatically and call for a ceasefire, is what the situation calls for. An agreement similar to the Taif Agreement needs to be signed at the earliest which could stipulate the Israeli troops to leave the South of Lebanon. The Gulf nations must mediate the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah and participate in South Lebanon’s rehabilitation. Though an agreement is inching towards a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, the success of the same is very unlikely at the moment since IDF has confirmed that they will not withdraw from Southern Lebanon unless they push back Hezbollah’s presence behind the Litani River and ensure a free and secure neighbor in the north of Israel.
